MalaysiaversusBahrain

10 Mar 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Bahrain won by 6 wickets

Malaysia20.0 overs125/8 Bahrain18.4 overs130/4 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bahrain more likely to win

44%Malaysia56%Bahrain

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bahrain rate stronger than Malaysia (1,560 vs 1,502 on our results rating)
Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Bahrain won 3 and Malaysia won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malaysia started on 41%; Malaysia batted first.

Malaysia’s chance of winning (%) · Bahrain is the rest

Malaysia's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (Bahrain: 38% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.2: Pavandeep Singh to P Kurup, P Kurup out. Malaysia up from 47% to 59%.
2nd inns 8.4: Virandeep Singh to Fiaz Ahmed, Fiaz Ahmed out. Malaysia up from 39% to 50%.
2nd inns 10.6: Syed Aziz to Asif Ali, six by Asif Ali. Bahrain up from 56% to 66%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malaysia125/8 Bahrain130/4

Innings 1

Malaysia

125/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malaysia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Syed Azizcaught · Junaid Aziz · Ali Dawood 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Junaid Aziz · b Ali Dawood	0	2	0	0	0.00
Zubaidi Zulkiflecaught · Sohail Ahmed · Imran Anwar 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sohail Ahmed · b Imran Anwar	0	2	0	0	0.00
Virandeep Singhcaught · Imran Anwar · Rizwan Butt 6 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Imran Anwar · b Rizwan Butt	65	51	6	1	127.45
Ahmed Faizbowled · Imran Khan (5) 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Imran Khan (5)	14	16	2	0	87.50
Vijay Unnilbw · Rizwan Butt 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Rizwan Butt	7	14	0	0	50.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls
Ali Dawood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	2	6.50
Imran Anwar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	3	7.75
Imran Khan (5)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	1	5.75
Abdul Majeed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	0	4.75
Rizwan Butt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/1
2	2	9/2
3	2	11/2
4	10	21/2
5	6	27/2
6	3	30/3
7	1	31/3
8	5	36/3
9	4	40/3
10	9	49/3
11	8	57/3
12	2	59/4
13	6	65/4
14	9	74/4
15	12	86/4
16	9	95/4
17	6	101/4
18	9	110/5
19	7	117/6
20	8	125/8

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