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Photo: Mnnngchris at English Wikipedia
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2026 · Men
22 May 2026 · T20
The County Ground, Derby · Venue photographRecorded result
Durham started on 50%; Durham batted first.
Durham's chances ranged from 45% to 95% during the match (Derbyshire: 5% to 55%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Graham Clarkcaught · Ben Aitchison · Jack Morley3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Aitchison · b Jack Morley | 21 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 110.53 |
 Alex Leescaught · Caleb Jewell · Ben Aitchison6 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Caleb Jewell · b Ben Aitchison | 54 | 28 | 6 | 3 | 192.86 |
| David Bedinghamcaught · Ross Whiteley · Jack Morley 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Ross Whiteley · b Jack Morley | 20 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 166.67 |
 Ben Rainecaught · Nick Potts · Jack Morley0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nick Potts · b Jack Morley |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
 Colin Ackermanncaught · Ross Whiteley · Nick Potts2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Ross Whiteley · b Nick Potts | 36 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 138.46 |
|---|
 Ollie Robinsoncaught · Martin Andersson · Akif Javed3 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Martin Andersson · b Akif Javed | 48 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Will Rhodescaught · Wayne Madsen · Nick Potts0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wayne Madsen · b Nick Potts | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Kasey Aldridgecaught · Martin Andersson · Ben Aitchison 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Martin Andersson · b Ben Aitchison | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 160.00 |
|---|
 Matthew Pottsnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Nathan Sowternot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Montgomery0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 12.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Ben Aitchison0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Akif Javed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Nick Potts0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Jack Morley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 3 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Ross Whiteley0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 27.00 | 1 | 1 |
1-77 (Alex Lees, 7.2) · 2-87 (Graham Clark, 8.4) · 3-87 (Ben Raine, 8.5) · 4-105 (David Bedingham, 11.0) · 5-186 (Colin Ackermann, 17.3) · 6-188 (Will Rhodes, 18.0) · 7-192 (Ollie Robinson, 18.5) · 8-202 (Kasey Aldridge, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 14 | 23/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 32/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 41/0 |
| 5 | 17 | 58/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 67/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 76/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 79/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 87/3 |
| 10 | 7 | 94/3 |
| 11 | 11 | 105/4 |
| 12 | 10 | 115/4 |
| 13 | 8 | 123/4 |
| 14 | 14 | 137/4 |
| 15 | 27 | 164/4 |
| 16 | 9 | 173/4 |
| 17 | 6 | 179/4 |
| 18 | 9 | 188/6 |
| 19 | 5 | 193/7 |
| 20 | 10 | 203/8 |
Ross Whiteley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Aneurin Donald: Dave Morton · Public domain
Colin Ackermann: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Aitchison: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alex Lees: Dave Morton · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Raine: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Rhodes: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Robinson: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jack Morley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Graham Clark: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wayne Madsen: Parklands cobbler · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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