ThailandversusIreland

18 Apr 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Ireland won by 8 wickets

Thailand19.1 overs79/10 Ireland13.2 overs83/2 7he Sevens Stadium, Dubai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

52%Thailand48%Ireland

Why

In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Thailand won 3 and Ireland won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Ireland rate stronger than Thailand (1,589 vs 1,560 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 51%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Ireland is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 0% to 52% during the match (Ireland: 48% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.5: A Canning to N Boochatham, N Boochatham out. Ireland up from 51% to 59%.
5.2: A Dalzell to N Chantam, N Chantam out. Ireland up from 64% to 70%.
19.1: L Delany to A Suwanchonrathi, A Suwanchonrathi out. Ireland up from 83% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand79/10 Ireland83/2

Innings 1

Thailand

79/1019.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Nattaya Boochathamcaught · Alana Dalzell · Ava Canning 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Alana Dalzell · b Ava Canning	0	5	0	0	0.00
Natthakan Chantambowled · Alana Dalzell 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Alana Dalzell	6	15	0	0	40.00
Nannapat Koncharoenkaistumped · Amy Hunter · Arlene Kelly 1 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Amy Hunter · b Arlene Kelly	27	34	1	0	79.41
Naruemol Chaiwai

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Ava Canning1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.1	1	11	1	2.64	0	0
Alana Dalzell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	12	1	4.00	0	0
Cara Murray0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	1	4.75	1	0
Arlene Kelly0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	12	4	4.00	0	0
Laura Delany0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	13	2	4.33	0	0
Leah Paul0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	0	12	0	6.00	0	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/1
2	2	2/1
3	1	3/1
4	8	11/1
5	1	12/1
6	2	14/2
7	9	23/2
8	6	29/2
9	5	34/2
10	4	38/2
11	5	43/3
12	4	47/3
13	10	57/3
14	5	62/3
15	8	70/4
16	2	72/7
17	1	73/7
18	2	75/8
19	4	79/10

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