South AfricaversusNew Zealand

17 Mar 2026 · T20

Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 18 runs

South Africa20.0 overs177/5 New Zealand19.1 overs159/10 Seddon Park, Hamilton ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

30%South Africa70%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than South Africa (1,619 vs 1,563 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 7 and South Africa won 3
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 29%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 29% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 71%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.3: A Khaka to IC Gaze, IC Gaze out. South Africa up from 60% to 72%.
2nd inns 6.5: N Mlaba to AC Kerr, AC Kerr out. South Africa up from 52% to 67%.
2nd inns 7.3: N de Klerk to SFM Devine, SFM Devine out. South Africa up from 67% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa177/5 New Zealand159/10

Innings 1

South Africa

177/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Suné Luuslbw · Amelia Kerr 5 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b Amelia Kerr	31	21	5	1	147.62
Tazmin Britscaught · Jess Kerr · Amelia Kerr 5 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Jess Kerr · b Amelia Kerr	53	43	5	3	123.26
Laura Wolvaardtnot out 4 fours · 0 sixes	not out	41*	33	4	0	124.24
Annerie Dercksenbowled · Jess Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Jess Kerr	2	4	0	0	50.00
Chloe Tryonrun out · Georgia Plimmer, Rosemary Mair · Rosemary Mair0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Jess Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	34	2	8.50	0	1
Bree Illing0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	25	0	8.33	1	1
Suzie Bates0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	19	0	19.00	0	0
Rosemary Mair0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	0	4.50	1	0
Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	2	7.25	1	0
Sophie Devine0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	46	0	11.50	5	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	6	14/0
3	19	33/0
4	6	39/0
5	9	48/0
6	1	49/0
7	13	62/1
8	13	75/1
9	6	81/1
10	11	92/1
11	8	100/1
12	10	110/1
13	4	114/2
14	4	118/3
15	5	123/4
16	6	129/4
17	7	136/4
18	16	152/5
19	4	156/5
20	21	177/5

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