AustraliaversusSouth Africa

Australia more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than South Africa (1,740 vs 1,627 on our results rating)
• In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 6 and South Africa won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Australia started on 71%; Australia batted first.

Australia's chances ranged from 59% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 41%).

Biggest swings

1. 0.5: M Kapp to G Voll, G Voll out. South Africa up from 30% to 40%.
2. 3.5: S Ismail to BL Mooney, BL Mooney out. South Africa up from 30% to 38%.
3. 7.2: N Mlaba to A Gardner, A Gardner out. South Africa up from 26% to 35%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.