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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Asia Qualifier A · 2026/27 · Men
14 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Bhutan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Thailand started on 41%; Thailand batted first.
Thailand's chances ranged from 29% to 100% during the match (Bhutan: 0% to 71%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akshaykumar Yadavstumped · Tshering Tashi · Tashi Phuntsho 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Tshering Tashi · b Tashi Phuntsho | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Phiriyapong Suanchuaicaught · Anand Mongar · Tashi Phuntsho 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anand Mongar · b Tashi Phuntsho | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 157.14 |
| Pattarapol Jirapatananukulcaught · Tshering Tashi · Thinley Jamtsho 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tshering Tashi · b Thinley Jamtsho | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
| Austin Lazaruscaught · Sonam Chophel · Sonam Yeshey 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sonam Chophel · b Sonam Yeshey | 12 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
| Chaloemwong Chatphaisanstumped · Tshering Tashi · Tashi Dorji 0 fours · 3 sixes | stumped · Tshering Tashi · b Tashi Dorji |
| 37 |
| 34 |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| 108.82 |
| Chanchai Pengkumtacaught · Anand Mongar · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Anand Mongar · b Ranjung Mikyo Dorji | 25 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 113.64 |
|---|
| Phanuphong Thongsacaught · Tashi Dorji · Thinley Jamtsho 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tashi Dorji · b Thinley Jamtsho | 23 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 143.75 |
|---|
| Mukesh Thakurcaught · Tashi Dorji · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tashi Dorji · b Ranjung Mikyo Dorji | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Nopphon Senamontreenot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 10* | 6 | 0 | 1 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Kamron Senamontreenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tashi Phuntsho0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Thinley Jamtsho0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 7.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Sonam Yeshey0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Gakul Ghalley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ranjung Mikyo Dorji0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 6.78 | 1 | 0 |
| Anand Mongar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashi Dorji0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 13.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Akshaykumar Yadav, 0.4) · 2-17 (Phiriyapong Suanchuai, 2.3) · 3-19 (Pattarapol Jirapatananukul, 3.2) · 4-57 (Austin Lazarus, 11.1) · 5-70 (Chaloemwong Chatphaisan, 13.2) · 6-115 (Phanuphong Thongsa, 17.5) · 7-119 (Chanchai Pengkumta, 18.3) · 8-120 (Mukesh Thakur, 18.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 7 | 13/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 18/2 |
| 4 | 3 | 21/3 |
| 5 | 6 | 27/3 |
| 6 | 2 | 29/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 32/3 |
| 8 | 7 | 39/3 |
| 9 | 7 | 46/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 48/3 |
| 11 | 9 | 57/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 58/4 |
| 13 | 11 | 69/4 |
| 14 | 11 | 80/5 |
| 15 | 3 | 83/5 |
| 16 | 16 | 99/5 |
| 17 | 12 | 111/5 |
| 18 | 6 | 117/6 |
| 19 | 5 | 122/8 |
| 20 | 12 | 134/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.