Birmingham BearsversusDurham

31 May 2025 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Durham won by 3 wickets

Birmingham Bears20.0 overs143/10 Durham17.1 overs147/7 Edgbaston ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Birmingham Bears started on 61%; Birmingham Bears batted first.

Birmingham Bears’s chance of winning (%) · Durham is the rest

Birmingham Bears's chances ranged from 0% to 63% during the match (Durham: 38% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.1: CF Parkinson to AL Davies, AL Davies out. Durham up from 40% to 53%.
2nd inns 0.5: EG Barnard to AZ Lees, AZ Lees out. Birmingham Bears up from 29% to 40%.
2nd inns 2.6: EG Barnard to CN Ackermann, CN Ackermann out. Birmingham Bears up from 19% to 31%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Birmingham Bears143/10 Durham147/7

Innings 1