MozambiqueversusSierra Leone

26 Apr 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Sierra Leone won by 7 wickets

Mozambique15.1 overs37/10 Sierra Leone10.4 overs39/3 Botswana Cricket Association Oval 2, Gaborone ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sierra Leone more likely to win

35%Mozambique65%Sierra Leone

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sierra Leone rate stronger than Mozambique (1,438 vs 1,366 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Sierra Leone won 1 and Mozambique won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Mozambique started on 34%; Mozambique batted first.

Mozambique’s chance of winning (%) · Sierra Leone is the rest

Mozambique's chances ranged from 0% to 35% during the match (Sierra Leone: 65% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.1: E Kamara to O Mondlane, O Mondlane out. Sierra Leone up from 65% to 74%.
3.1: A Fillie to WNA Bucuane, WNA Bucuane out. Sierra Leone up from 70% to 77%.
4.3: E Kamara to L Chipanga, L Chipanga out. Sierra Leone up from 75% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Mozambique37/10 Sierra Leone39/3

Innings 1

Mozambique

37/1015.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Mozambique batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
O Mondlanebowled · Emma Kamara 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Emma Kamara	0	1	0	0	0.00
IE Mulhovocaught and bowled · L Bull 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b L Bull	13	33	0	0	39.39
WNA Bucuanecaught · J Kowa · A Fillie 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · J Kowa · b A Fillie	4	10	0	0	40.00
L Chipangacaught · C Bull · Emma Kamara 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · C Bull · b Emma Kamara	1	5	0	0	20.00
C Magaiabowled · C Bull 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b C Bull	1	10	0	0	10.00
A Salomaobowled · Aminata Kamara0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Emma Kamara0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	4	2	1.33	1
A Fillie0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	1	6.00	3
C Bull1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	6	1	2.00	0
Aminata Kamara1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	4	3	1.33	0
Z Kamara1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.1	1	2	2	0.92	1
L Bull0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	9	1	4.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	8	9/1
3	2	11/1
4	4	15/2
5	1	16/3
6	3	19/3
7	0	19/3
8	0	19/4
9	3	22/5
10	3	25/5
11	1	26/7
12	0	26/7
13	2	28/8
14	2	30/9
15	7	37/9
16	0	37/10

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