**St George's Park, Gqeberha**
Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2025/26 · Men

Sunrisers Eastern CapeversusPretoria Capitals

29 Dec 2025 · T20

St George's Park, Gqeberha · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sunrisers Eastern Cape won by 48 runs

Sunrisers Eastern Cape20.0 overs188/6 Pretoria Capitals18.0 overs140/10 St George's Park, Gqeberha ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers Eastern Cape started on 61%; Sunrisers Eastern Cape batted first.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape’s chance of winning (%) · Pretoria Capitals is the rest

Sunrisers Eastern Cape's chances ranged from 59% to 100% during the match (Pretoria Capitals: 0% to 41%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.4: L Gregory to D Brevis, D Brevis out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 62% to 75%.
2nd inns 10.3: S Muthusamy to WCF Smeed, WCF Smeed out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 65% to 79%.
2nd inns 12.1: AF Milne to C Esterhuizen, C Esterhuizen out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 81% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape188/6 Pretoria Capitals140/10

Innings 1