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ICC Women's T20 World Cup Europe Division 2 Qualifier · 2025 · Women
25 May 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Spain more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sweden started on 35%; Sweden batted first.
Sweden's chances ranged from 12% to 100% during the match (Spain: 1% to 88%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Vaidyabowled · A Davidson-Soler 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b A Davidson-Soler | 17 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 141.67 |
| Eman Asimbowled · NH Berejo 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b NH Berejo | 30 | 50 | 2 | 0 | 60.00 |
| E Thelanderbowled · Uswa Syed 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Uswa Syed | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kanchan Ranabowled · Uswa Syed 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Uswa Syed | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| G Shuklacaught · NH Berejo · P Chilongia 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · NH Berejo · b P Chilongia | 12 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Jayasooriyabowled · Rabia Mushtaq1 fours · 0 sixes |
| bowled · b Rabia Mushtaq |
| 5 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| GMK Jayaweerabowled · S Basharat 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b S Basharat | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Hareer Chamtonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 8 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Zara Mohammadnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 10 | 1 | 0 | 110.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 12 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Davidson-Soler0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 3.75 | 4 | 0 |
| Uswa Syed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 5.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Rabia Mushtaq0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 4.00 | 2 | 0 |
| P Chilongia0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
| NH Berejo0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 4.50 | 2 | 0 |
| A Brown-Carrera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| S Basharat0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 7.50 | 2 | 0 |
1-22 (A Vaidya, 2.4) · 2-25 (E Thelander, 4.0) · 3-30 (Kanchan Rana, 6.0) · 4-51 (G Shukla, 11.3) · 5-75 (Jayasooriya, 14.4) · 6-79 (Eman Asim, 15.5) · 7-88 (GMK Jayaweera, 17.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 22/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 25/2 |
| 5 | 1 | 26/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 30/3 |
| 7 | 2 | 32/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 36/3 |
| 9 | 6 | 42/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 44/3 |
| 11 | 2 | 46/3 |
| 12 | 14 | 60/4 |
| 13 | 6 | 66/4 |
| 14 | 8 | 74/4 |
| 15 | 3 | 77/5 |
| 16 | 2 | 79/6 |
| 17 | 3 | 82/6 |
| 18 | 7 | 89/7 |
| 19 | 7 | 96/7 |
| 20 | 8 | 104/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.