MalaysiaversusHong Kong

23 Aug 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Hong Kong won by 6 wickets

Malaysia20.0 overs101/7 Hong Kong16.5 overs102/4 Selangor Turf Club, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Malaysia more likely to win

58%Malaysia42%Hong Kong

Why

Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Malaysia won 6 and Hong Kong won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Hong Kong rate stronger than Malaysia (1,508 vs 1,499 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malaysia started on 54%; Malaysia batted first.

Malaysia’s chance of winning (%) · Hong Kong is the rest

Malaysia's chances ranged from 0% to 73% during the match (Hong Kong: 27% to 100%).

Biggest swings

5.4: Ateeq Iqbal to Syed Aziz, Syed Aziz out. Hong Kong up from 36% to 42%.
2nd inns 0.2: Rizwan Haider to M Coetzee, M Coetzee out. Malaysia up from 19% to 29%.
2nd inns 3.6: Pavandeep Singh to Anshuman Rath, Anshuman Rath out. Malaysia up from 17% to 24%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malaysia101/7 Hong Kong102/4

Innings 1

Malaysia

101/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malaysia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Syed Azizcaught · Martin Coetzee · Ateeq Iqbal 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Martin Coetzee · b Ateeq Iqbal	31	21	4	1	147.62
Rajkumar Rajendranbowled · Ehsan Khan 0 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Ehsan Khan	8	13	0	1	61.54
Sharvin Muniandycaught · Nizakat Khan · Yasim Murtaza 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nizakat Khan · b Yasim Murtaza	6	9	0	0	66.67
Ahmed Faizcaught · Zeeshan Ali · Yasim Murtaza 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Zeeshan Ali · b Yasim Murtaza	16	25	0	0	64.00
Muhammad Amirstumped · Zeeshan Ali · Yasim Murtaza 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Zeeshan Ali · b Yasim Murtaza	5	10	0	0	50.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Adil Mehmood0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	0	24	0	8.00	0	1
Ateeq Iqbal1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	14	1	3.50	1	0
Ehsan Khan0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	25	1	8.33	3	0
Anas Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	0	4.50	1	0
Yasim Murtaza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	9	4	2.25	0	0
Aizaz Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	11	0	5.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	3	6/0
3	16	22/0
4	7	29/0
5	11	40/1
6	0	40/2
7	5	45/2
8	4	49/2
9	3	52/2
10	2	54/3
11	6	60/3
12	3	63/4
13	4	67/4
14	3	70/4
15	7	77/4
16	1	78/6
17	4	82/6
18	9	91/6
19	5	96/6
20	5	101/7

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.