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ICC Women's Emerging Nations Trophy · 2025/26 · Women
20 Nov 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 53%; Scotland batted first.
Scotland's chances ranged from 22% to 100% during the match (Uganda: 0% to 78%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcey Carternot out 5 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 54* | 50 | 5 | 1 | 108.00 |
| Ailsa Listerbowled · Concy Aweko 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Concy Aweko | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ellen Watsoncaught · Immaculate Nakisuuyi · S Akiteng 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Immaculate Nakisuuyi · b S Akiteng | 11 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 73.33 |
| Sarah Brycecaught · S Akiteng · Janet Mbabazi 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Akiteng · b Janet Mbabazi | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Megan McCollstumped · Kevin Awino · Janet Mbabazi 6 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Kevin Awino · b Janet Mbabazi | 32 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 145.45 |
| lbw · b Janet Mbabazi |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Rachel Slaterrun out · Kevin Awino, S Akiteng · Janet Mbabazi 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kevin Awino, S Akiteng | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Chloe Abelrun out · Kevin Awino, Malisa Ariokot · Immaculate Nakisuuyi 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kevin Awino, Malisa Ariokot | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Abtaha Maqsoodbowled · Immaculate Nakisuuyi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Immaculate Nakisuuyi | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Olivia Bellrun out · Janet Mbabazi, Malisa Ariokot · Janet Mbabazi 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Janet Mbabazi, Malisa Ariokot | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| MA Parker (2)not out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Amuge0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Concy Aweko0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Malisa Ariokot0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 3 | 0 |
| S Akiteng0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Janet Mbabazi1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Immaculate Nakisuuyi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-8 (Ailsa Lister, 1.1) · 2-35 (Ellen Watson, 6.0) · 3-53 (Sarah Bryce, 8.5) · 4-103 (Megan McColl, 15.1) · 5-103 (Priyanaz Chatterji, 15.4) · 6-103 (Rachel Slater, 16.0) · 7-105 (Chloe Abel, 16.4) · 8-105 (Abtaha Maqsood, 17.0) · 9-107 (Olivia Bell, 18.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 13/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 18/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 26/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 35/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 40/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 42/2 |
| 9 | 15 | 57/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 62/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 69/3 |
| 12 | 13 | 82/3 |
| 13 | 6 | 88/3 |
| 14 | 6 | 94/3 |
| 15 | 9 | 103/3 |
| 16 | 0 | 103/6 |
| 17 | 2 | 105/8 |
| 18 | 2 | 107/9 |
| 19 | 3 | 110/9 |
| 20 | 5 | 115/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.