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Photo: Michal Klajban
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
West Indies tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Men
16 Nov 2025 · ODI
Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 83%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Conwaycaught · Shai Hope · Justin Greaves 7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Justin Greaves | 49 | 58 | 7 | 1 | 84.48 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Shai Hope · Matthew Forde0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Matthew Forde | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 26.67 |
 Will Youngcaught · Shai Hope · Matthew Forde0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Matthew Forde | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Sherfane Rutherford · Jayden Seales 12 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Sherfane Rutherford · b Jayden Seales | 119 | 118 | 12 | 2 | 100.85 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 70% to 98% during the match (West Indies: 2% to 30%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Shai Hope · b Jayden Seales |
| 18 |
| 30 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 60.00 |
| Michael Bracewellcaught · Shamar Springer · Roston Chase 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shamar Springer · b Roston Chase | 35 | 52 | 1 | 1 | 67.31 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnercaught · Matthew Forde · Jayden Seales 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Forde · b Jayden Seales | 11 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 110.00 |
|---|
| Zakary Foulkesnot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 22* | 16 | 3 | 0 | 137.50 |
|---|
 Kyle Jamiesonnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Forde1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 55 | 2 | 5.50 | 5 | 0 |
| Jayden Seales1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 41 | 3 | 4.56 | 2 | 0 |
| Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 5.75 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Greaves0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 54 | 1 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Shamar Springer0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 59 | 0 | 6.56 | 1 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 3.70 | 0 | 0 |
1-24 (Rachin Ravindra, 6.1) · 2-24 (Will Young, 6.2) · 3-91 (Devon Conway, 18.2) · 4-123 (Tom Latham, 27.0) · 5-192 (Michael Bracewell, 41.2) · 6-220 (Mitchell Santner, 45.1) · 7-263 (Daryl Mitchell, 49.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 7/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 14/0 |
| 6 | 10 | 24/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 24/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 28/2 |
| 9 | 7 | 35/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 39/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 41/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 45/2 |
| 13 | 7 | 52/2 |
| 14 | 10 | 62/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 67/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 72/2 |
| 17 | 13 | 85/2 |
| 18 | 6 | 91/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 92/3 |
| 20 | 2 | 94/3 |
| 21 | 7 | 101/3 |
| 22 | 2 | 103/3 |
| 23 | 1 | 104/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 108/3 |
| 25 | 6 | 114/3 |
| 26 | 4 | 118/3 |
| 27 | 5 | 123/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 125/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 129/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 133/4 |
| 31 | 1 | 134/4 |
| 32 | 1 | 135/4 |
| 33 | 4 | 139/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 141/4 |
| 35 | 13 | 154/4 |
| 36 | 2 | 156/4 |
| 37 | 12 | 168/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 172/4 |
| 39 | 9 | 181/4 |
| 40 | 4 | 185/4 |
| 41 | 7 | 192/4 |
| 42 | 6 | 198/5 |
| 43 | 6 | 204/5 |
| 44 | 8 | 212/5 |
| 45 | 8 | 220/5 |
| 46 | 10 | 230/6 |
| 47 | 3 | 233/6 |
| 48 | 13 | 246/6 |
| 49 | 17 | 263/6 |
| 50 | 6 | 269/7 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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