Sierra LeoneversusUganda

15 Sept 2026 · T20

Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Uganda won by 8 wickets

Sierra Leone17.4 overs55/10 Uganda7.0 overs56/2 Gahanga International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Uganda more likely to win

7%Sierra Leone93%Uganda

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Uganda rate stronger than Sierra Leone (1,653 vs 1,252 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Uganda won 1 and Sierra Leone won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sierra Leone started on 6%; Sierra Leone batted first.

Sierra Leone’s chance of winning (%) · Uganda is the rest

Sierra Leone's chances ranged from 0% to 7% during the match (Uganda: 93% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.6: E Kasaija to R Coker, four by R Coker. Sierra Leone up from 6% to 7%.
3.2: E Kasaija to A Turay, A Turay out. Uganda up from 94% to 95%.
3.4: E Kasaija to AB Kamara, AB Kamara out. Uganda up from 96% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sierra Leone55/10 Uganda56/2

Innings 1

Sierra Leone

55/1017.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sierra Leone batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
R Cokerbowled · Kenneth Waiswa 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kenneth Waiswa	14	27	2	0	51.85
A Turaycaught · Riazat Ali Shah · E Kasaija 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Riazat Ali Shah · b E Kasaija	5	9	1	0	55.56
AB Kamarabowled · E Kasaija 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b E Kasaija	0	2	0	0	0.00
Aliya Kamaracaught · Olipa Gerald · Kenneth Waiswa 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Olipa Gerald · b Kenneth Waiswa	11	9	2	0	122.22
EM Turaybowled · J Baguma 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b J Baguma	1	3	0	0	33.33
Y Jalloh

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
M Musinguzi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	11	1	2.75	0
E Kasaija0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	8	2	2.67	1
Riazat Ali Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	0	6.00	0
Kenneth Waiswa0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	8	2	4.00	1
J Baguma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	11	2	2.75	0
Olipa Gerald1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.4	1	1	3	0.38	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	4	9/0
3	3	12/0
4	1	13/2
5	4	17/2
6	1	18/2
7	8	26/2
8	7	33/4
9	6	39/6
10	2	41/7
11	7	48/7
12	1	49/7
13	1	50/7
14	0	50/8
15	1	51/8
16	1	52/9
17	3	55/9
18	0	55/10

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