ZimbabweversusSri Lanka

18 Jan 2024 · T20

R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 9 wickets

Zimbabwe14.1 overs82/10 Sri Lanka10.5 overs88/1 R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

38%Zimbabwe62%Sri Lanka

Why

In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 3 and Zimbabwe won 1
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka
On results in T20 internationals so far, Zimbabwe rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,516 vs 1,514 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 35%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 50% during the match (Sri Lanka: 50% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.2: AD Mathews to CR Ervine, CR Ervine out. Sri Lanka up from 64% to 75%.
2.6: AD Mathews to BJ Bennett, BJ Bennett out. Sri Lanka up from 50% to 61%.
9.4: PWH de Silva to T Munyonga, T Munyonga out. Sri Lanka up from 69% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe82/10 Sri Lanka88/1

Innings 1

Zimbabwe

82/1014.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
Tinashe Kamunhukamwecaught · Kusal Mendis · Mahesh Theekshana 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kusal Mendis · b Mahesh Theekshana	12	14	1	85.71
Craig Ervinecaught · Sadeera Samarawickrama · Angelo Mathews 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sadeera Samarawickrama · b Angelo Mathews	0	1	0	0.00
Brian Bennettcaught · Wanindu Hasaranga · Angelo Mathews 7 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Wanindu Hasaranga · b Angelo Mathews	29	12	7	241.67
Sean Williamscaught and bowled · Dhananjaya de Silva 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Dhananjaya de Silva	15	17	0	88.24

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls
Angelo Mathews0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	2	7.50
Dilshan Madushanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	22	1	11.00
Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.1	14	2	4.42
Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	13	0	6.50
Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	4	3.75
Dhananjaya de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	1	1	1.00

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/1
2	19	28/1
3	7	35/2
4	2	37/2
5	8	45/2
6	7	52/3
7	5	57/3
8	6	63/3
9	4	67/4
10	6	73/5
11	1	74/6
12	2	76/7
13	5	81/7
14	1	82/9
15	0	82/10

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