BangladeshversusAustralia

24 Mar 2024 · ODI

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 6 wickets

Bangladesh44.1 overs97/10 Australia23.5 overs98/4 Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

13%Bangladesh87%Australia

Why

On results in ODIs so far, Australia rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,864 vs 1,388 on our results rating)
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
In the last 2 ODIs between these sides, Australia won 2 and Bangladesh won 0

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 12%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 14% during the match (Australia: 86% to 100%).

Biggest swings

8.3: ML Schutt to S Mostary, S Mostary out. Australia up from 88% to 91%.
15.2: S Molineux to Fargana Hoque, Fargana Hoque out. Australia up from 92% to 94%.
16.2: A Gardner to Murshida Khatun, Murshida Khatun out. Australia up from 94% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

Bangladesh97/10 Australia98/4

Innings 1

Bangladesh

97/1044.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Fargana Hoquecaught · Tahlia McGrath · Sophie Molineux 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tahlia McGrath · b Sophie Molineux	7	52	0	0	13.46
Sobhana Mostarycaught · Alyssa Healy · Megan Schutt 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Alyssa Healy · b Megan Schutt	3	20	0	0	15.00
Murshida Khatuncaught · Sophie Molineux · Ashleigh Gardner 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sophie Molineux · b Ashleigh Gardner	5	24	0	0	20.83
Nigar Sultanalbw · Sophie Molineux 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Sophie Molineux

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Megan Schutt2 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	6.0	2	7	1	1.17	5
Ellyse Perry0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	11	0	3.67	4
Sophie Molineux5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	10.0	5	10	3	1.00	0
Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	10.0	0	22	2	2.20	7
Alana King2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	6.1	2	15	2	2.43	0
Georgia Wareham2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	9.0	2	30	2	3.33	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	5	7/0
3	1	8/0
4	3	11/0
5	0	11/0
6	3	14/0
7	3	17/0
8	0	17/0
9	0	17/1
10	0	17/1
11	1	18/1
12	1	19/1
13	1	20/1
14	2	22/1
15	1	23/1
16	2	25/2
17	1	26/3
18	1	27/4
19	9	36/4
20	5	41/4
21	3	44/4
22	0	44/4
23	8	52/4
24	0	52/5
25	0	52/6
26	0	52/6
27	1	53/6
28	0	53/6
29	3	56/6
30	4	60/7
31	1	61/7
32	1	62/8
33	2	64/8
34	2	66/8
35	4	70/8
36	4	74/8
37	1	75/8
38	1	76/8
39	1	77/9
40	8	85/9
41	1	86/9
42	7	93/9
43	0	93/9
44	4	97/9
45	0	97/10

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