Sri LankaversusNew Zealand

16 Mar 2025 · T20

Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 7 wickets

Sri Lanka20.0 overs113/7 New Zealand18.3 overs117/3 Hagley Oval, Christchurch ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

36%Sri Lanka64%New Zealand

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 8 and Sri Lanka won 2
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than New Zealand (1,587 vs 1,573 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 33%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 35% during the match (New Zealand: 65% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: BG Illing to RMVD Gunaratne, RMVD Gunaratne out. New Zealand up from 66% to 75%.
6.2: BG Illing to H Madavi, H Madavi out. New Zealand up from 65% to 71%.
2nd inns 1.2: BMSM Kumari to GE Plimmer, GE Plimmer out. Sri Lanka up from 18% to 25%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka113/7 New Zealand117/3

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

113/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
Chamari Atapattubowled · Jess Kerr 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Jess Kerr	23	29	4	79.31
Vishmi Gunaratnebowled · Bree Illing 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Bree Illing	0	2	0	0.00
Harshitha Madavicaught · Suzie Bates · Bree Illing 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Suzie Bates · b Bree Illing	11	15	0	73.33
Kavisha Dilharibowled · Flora Devonshire 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Flora Devonshire	12	12	1

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Bree Illing0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	2	4.50	3
Eden Carson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	0	6.50	0
Jess Kerr0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	29	2	7.25	2
Suzie Bates1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	16	0	4.00	1
Flora Devonshire0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	1	6.00	1
Brooke Halliday0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	11	1	5.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	5	8/1
3	4	12/1
4	9	21/1
5	4	25/1
6	8	33/1
7	7	40/2
8	0	40/2
9	6	46/3
10	7	53/4
11	3	56/4
12	6	62/4
13	4	66/4
14	3	69/4
15	7	76/4
16	9	85/4
17	11	96/4
18	10	106/4
19	4	110/6
20	3	113/7

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