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Photo: HLloyd8
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men
31 May 2024 · T20
Sophia Gardens, Cardiff · Venue photographRecorded result
Surrey started on 55%; Surrey batted first.
Surrey's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (Glamorgan: 0% to 70%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurie Evanscaught · Colin Ingram · Tom Bevan 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Colin Ingram · b Tom Bevan | 27 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 142.11 |
 Daniel Lawrencecaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Jamie McIlroy2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Jamie McIlroy | 13 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 108.33 |
 Jason Roybowled · Timm van der Gugten2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Timm van der Gugten | 11 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 137.50 |
 Ollie Popecaught · Chris Cooke · Daniel Douthwaite0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chris Cooke · b Daniel Douthwaite |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
 Jamie Smithcaught · Sam Northeast · Jamie McIlroy1 fours · 8 sixes | caught · Sam Northeast · b Jamie McIlroy | 76 | 38 | 1 | 8 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Jordan Clarkbowled · Daniel Douthwaite0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Daniel Douthwaite | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Tom Curranbowled · Marnus Labuschagne1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marnus Labuschagne | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
 Sean Abbottnot out0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 24* | 15 | 0 | 1 | 160.00 |
|---|
| Cameron Steelbowled · Mason Crane 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Mason Crane | 13 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 144.44 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsonnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 7 | 1 | 0 | 142.86 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 6 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jamie McIlroy0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 49 | 2 | 12.25 | 0 | 2 |
 Timm van der Gugten0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Douthwaite0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 6.50 | 0 | 2 |
 Mason Crane0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 1 | 0 |
 Marnus Labuschagne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Tom Bevan0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 15.00 | 5 | 0 |
1-15 (Daniel Lawrence, 2.2) · 2-30 (Jason Roy, 3.4) · 3-31 (Ollie Pope, 4.2) · 4-107 (Laurie Evans, 11.2) · 5-119 (Jordan Clark, 12.3) · 6-146 (Jamie Smith, 15.0) · 7-146 (Tom Curran, 15.1) · 8-169 (Cameron Steel, 17.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 26/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 30/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 33/3 |
| 6 | 10 | 43/3 |
| 7 | 7 | 50/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 58/3 |
| 9 | 12 | 70/3 |
| 10 | 12 | 82/3 |
| 11 | 21 | 103/3 |
| 12 | 15 | 118/4 |
| 13 | 1 | 119/5 |
| 14 | 7 | 126/5 |
| 15 | 20 | 146/6 |
| 16 | 5 | 151/7 |
| 17 | 14 | 165/7 |
| 18 | 8 | 173/8 |
| 19 | 16 | 189/8 |
| 20 | 11 | 200/8 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mason Crane: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Kiran Carlson: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jason Roy: Joeyjackets · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chris Cooke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jamie McIlroy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Curran: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Timm van der Gugten: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jordan Clark: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Northeast: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Bevan: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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