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Photo: Kieran Connellan from Hamilton, New Zealand
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Zimbabwe Women tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Women
1 Mar 2026 · T20
Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 17%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 18% during the match (New Zealand: 82% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelis Ndhlovucaught · Rosemary Mair · Jess Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rosemary Mair · b Jess Kerr | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Modester Mupachikwarun out · Izzy Gaze, Amelia Kerr · Jess Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Izzy Gaze, Amelia Kerr | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
| Chipo Mugericaught · Izzy Gaze · Jess Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Izzy Gaze · b Jess Kerr | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| B Bizacaught · Brooke Halliday · Nensi Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brooke Halliday · b Nensi Patel | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Chiedza Dhururucaught and bowled · Nensi Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Nensi Patel | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Loren Tshumacaught · Nensi Patel · Amelia Kerr 1 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Nensi Patel · b Amelia Kerr |
| 5 |
| 14 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 35.71 |
| Christabel Chatonzwarun out · Izzy Gaze, Izzy Sharp · Kayley Knight 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Izzy Gaze, Izzy Sharp | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| A Zimunulbw · Nensi Patel 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nensi Patel | 20 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 86.96 |
|---|
| Audrey Mazvishayanot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 20* | 37 | 2 | 0 | 54.05 |
|---|
| Nomvelo Sibandabowled · Maddy Green 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Maddy Green | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| T Makushanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jess Kerr1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Rosemary Mair1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Nensi Patel2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Kayley Knight0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 1 | 0 |
 Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 4.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Molly Penfold0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 4.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Maddy Green0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-3 (Kelis Ndhlovu, 2.3) · 2-3 (Modester Mupachikwa, 2.4) · 3-4 (B Biza, 3.1) · 4-4 (Chiedza Dhururu, 3.4) · 5-4 (Chipo Mugeri, 4.2) · 6-10 (Christabel Chatonzwa, 7.0) · 7-10 (Loren Tshuma, 7.3) · 8-52 (A Zimunu, 16.1) · 9-60 (Nomvelo Sibanda, 19.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 4/2 |
| 4 | 0 | 4/4 |
| 5 | 5 | 9/5 |
| 6 | 0 | 9/5 |
| 7 | 1 | 10/6 |
| 8 | 1 | 11/7 |
| 9 | 1 | 12/7 |
| 10 | 2 | 14/7 |
| 11 | 5 | 19/7 |
| 12 | 4 | 23/7 |
| 13 | 7 | 30/7 |
| 14 | 13 | 43/7 |
| 15 | 2 | 45/7 |
| 16 | 7 | 52/7 |
| 17 | 0 | 52/8 |
| 18 | 6 | 58/8 |
| 19 | 1 | 59/8 |
| 20 | 5 | 64/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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