ThailandversusNetherlands

3 Feb 2025 · T20

Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Thailand won by 17 runs

Thailand19.5 overs86/10 Netherlands15.5 overs69/10 Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

68%Thailand32%Netherlands

Why

In the last 9 T20 internationals between these sides, Thailand won 7 and Netherlands won 2
On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Netherlands (1,624 vs 1,568 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 66%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Netherlands is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 8% to 92% during the match (Netherlands: 8% to 93%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 10.4: T Putthawong to EN Lynch, EN Lynch out. Thailand up from 35% to 73%.
2nd inns 13.6: O Kamchomphu to C de Lange, C de Lange out. Thailand up from 39% to 73%.
2nd inns 15.4: N Boochatham to IJR Zwilling, IJR Zwilling out. Thailand up from 64% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand86/10 Netherlands69/10

Innings 1

Thailand

86/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Nattaya Boochathambowled · Eva Lynch 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Eva Lynch	1	6	0	0	16.67
Aphisara Suwanchonrathicaught · Caroline de Lange · Eva Lynch 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Caroline de Lange · b Eva Lynch	8	20	1	0	40.00
Nannapat Koncharoenkaibowled · Iris Zwilling 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Iris Zwilling	5	5	0	0	100.00
Naruemol Chaiwaicaught · Frederique Overdijk · Silver Siegers 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Frederique Overdijk · b Silver Siegers

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Iris Zwilling0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	2	5.75	1	0
Eva Lynch1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	13	2	3.25	0	0
Silver Siegers0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	9	2	2.25	0	1
Caroline de Lange0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	0	20	0	5.22	1	0
I van der Woning1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	11	1	3.67	0	0
Heather Siegers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	7	0	7.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	4	9/1
3	3	12/1
4	2	14/1
5	7	21/2
6	0	21/3
7	3	24/3
8	1	25/4
9	3	28/4
10	3	31/4
11	2	33/4
12	3	36/4
13	7	43/4
14	9	52/4
15	0	52/5
16	6	58/6
17	10	68/6
18	3	71/7
19	8	79/8
20	7	86/10

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