South AfricaversusAustralia

Australia more likely to win

Why

• On results in ODIs so far, Australia rate stronger than South Africa (1,922 vs 1,583 on our results rating)
• In the last 8 ODIs between these sides, Australia won 7 and South Africa won 1

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

South Africa started on 13%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 21% during the match (Australia: 79% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1. 6.4: ML Schutt to L Wolvaardt, L Wolvaardt out. Australia up from 80% to 86%.
2. 9.2: KJ Garth to T Brits, T Brits out. Australia up from 85% to 90%.
3. 11.2: A King to S Luus, S Luus out. Australia up from 91% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.