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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
23 Jun 2024 · T20
Kensington Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 40%; United States of America batted first.
United States of America's chances ranged from 0% to 48% during the match (England: 53% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Taylorcaught · Moeen Ali · Sam Curran 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Moeen Ali · b Sam Curran | 12 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 92.31 |
| Andries Gouscaught · Philip Salt · Reece Topley 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Philip Salt · b Reece Topley | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 160.00 |
| Nitish Kumarbowled · Adil Rashid 1 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Adil Rashid | 30 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 125.00 |
| Aaron Jonesbowled · Adil Rashid 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Adil Rashid | 10 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Corey Andersoncaught · Harry Brook · Chris Jordan 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Chris Jordan | 29 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 103.57 |
| caught · Jos Buttler · b Liam Livingstone |
| 4 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| Harmeet Singhcaught · Chris Jordan · Sam Curran 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Chris Jordan · b Sam Curran | 21 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 123.53 |
|---|
| Shadley van Schalkwyknot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
 Ali Khanbowled · Chris Jordan0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Chris Jordan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nosthush Kenjigelbw · Chris Jordan 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Chris Jordan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Saurabh Netravalkarbowled · Chris Jordan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Chris Jordan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reece Topley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Jofra Archer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Sam Curran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 11.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 3.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Liam Livingstone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Chris Jordan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.5 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 3.53 | 0 | 0 |
1-9 (Andries Gous, 1.0) · 2-43 (Steven Taylor, 5.3) · 3-56 (Aaron Jones, 8.4) · 4-67 (Nitish Kumar, 10.4) · 5-88 (Milind Kumar, 14.0) · 6-115 (Harmeet Singh, 18.0) · 7-115 (Corey Anderson, 18.1) · 8-115 (Ali Khan, 18.3) · 9-115 (Nosthush Kenjige, 18.4) · 10-115 (Saurabh Netravalkar, 18.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 11/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 18/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 26/1 |
| 5 | 13 | 39/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 48/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 50/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 55/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 59/3 |
| 10 | 6 | 65/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 69/4 |
| 12 | 4 | 73/4 |
| 13 | 6 | 79/4 |
| 14 | 9 | 88/5 |
| 15 | 3 | 91/5 |
| 16 | 6 | 97/5 |
| 17 | 4 | 101/5 |
| 18 | 14 | 115/6 |
| 19 | 0 | 115/10 |
Ali Khan: U.S. Embassy Port of Spain · Public domain
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Chris Jordan: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Reece Topley: Kyle Andrews · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Jonny Bairstow: Mcadge · CC BY-SA 4.0
Moeen Ali: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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