New ZealandversusPakistan

23 Mar 2025 · T20

Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 115 runs

New Zealand20.0 overs220/6 Pakistan16.2 overs105/10 Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

74%New Zealand26%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than Pakistan (1,605 vs 1,493 on our results rating)
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 6 and Pakistan won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 72%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 72% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 28%).

Biggest swings

0.2: Shaheen Shah Afridi to TL Seifert, four by TL Seifert. New Zealand up from 72% to 75%.
1.3: Khushdil Shah to TL Seifert, six by TL Seifert. New Zealand up from 75% to 80%.
2nd inns 0.2: W O'Rourke to Mohammad Haris, Mohammad Haris out. New Zealand up from 92% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand220/6 Pakistan105/10

Innings 1

New Zealand

220/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tim Seifertcaught · Khushdil Shah · Haris Rauf 3 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Khushdil Shah · b Haris Rauf	44	22	3	4	200.00
Finn Allencaught · Hassan Nawaz · Abbas Afridi 6 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Hassan Nawaz · b Abbas Afridi	50	20	6	3	250.00
Mark Chapmanbowled · Haris Rauf 2 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b Haris Rauf	24	16	2	2	150.00
Daryl Mitchellcaught · Irfan Khan · Haris Rauf 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Irfan Khan · b Haris Rauf	29	23	1	1	126.09
James Neeshamcaught · Mohammad Haris · Abrar Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mohammad Haris · b Abrar Ahmed	3	5	0	0	60.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	49	0	12.25	1	0
Khushdil Shah0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	12	0	12.00	4	0
Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	2	10.25	0	0
Haris Rauf0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	3	6.75	5	0
Abbas Afridi0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	38	1	12.67	1	1
Shadab Khan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	49	0	12.25	2	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	12	20/0
3	15	35/0
4	19	54/0
5	13	67/1
6	12	79/1
7	16	95/1
8	13	108/1
9	3	111/2
10	23	134/2
11	4	138/3
12	3	141/4
13	7	148/4
14	3	151/5
15	6	157/5
16	9	166/5
17	15	181/5
18	23	204/5
19	5	209/6
20	11	220/6

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.