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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia tour of Zimbabwe · 2026 · Men
20 Sept 2026 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 25%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bennettcaught · Travis Head · Nathan Ellis 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Travis Head · b Nathan Ellis | 30 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 103.45 |
| Ben Currancaught · Josh Inglis · Spencer Johnson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Spencer Johnson | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 53.85 |
| Innocent Kaiaretired hurt · Nathan Ellis 7 fours · 0 sixes | retired hurt | 55* | 66 | 7 | 0 | 83.33 |
 Brendan Taylorbowled · Adam Zampa1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Adam Zampa | 9 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 56.25 |
 Craig Ervine |
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 10% to 91% during the match (Australia: 9% to 90%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Matt Renshaw · b Adam Zampa |
| 59 |
| 79 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 74.68 |
 Sikandar Razanot out7 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 81* | 72 | 7 | 1 | 112.50 |
|---|
| Wesley Madheverecaught · Matt Renshaw · Nathan Ellis 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matt Renshaw · b Nathan Ellis | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Brad Evanscaught · Josh Inglis · Spencer Johnson 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Spencer Johnson | 11 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Graeme Cremerlbw · Nathan Ellis 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nathan Ellis | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Ernest Masukurun out · Josh Inglis, Xavier Bartlett · Xavier Bartlett 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Josh Inglis, Xavier Bartlett | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Blessing Muzarabaninot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 11 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Johnson1 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 50 | 2 | 5.00 | 5 | 1 |
| Xavier Bartlett0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 69 | 0 | 6.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 50 | 3 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Cooper Connolly0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Matt Renshaw1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 4.33 | 2 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 2 | 5.30 | 2 | 0 |
 Oliver Peake0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-34 (Ben Curran, 6.1) · 2-48 (Brian Bennett, 8.4) · 3-68 (Brendan Taylor, 14.3) · 4-209 (Craig Ervine, 40.4) · 5-212 (Wesley Madhevere, 41.2) · 6-226 (Brad Evans, 43.4) · 7-231 (Graeme Cremer, 44.5) · 8-269 (Ernest Masuku, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 16/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 17/0 |
| 6 | 17 | 34/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 40/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 44/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 48/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 57/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 58/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 60/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 63/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 66/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 69/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 73/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 75/3 |
| 18 | 8 | 83/3 |
| 19 | 8 | 91/3 |
| 20 | 8 | 99/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 102/3 |
| 22 | 8 | 110/3 |
| 23 | 6 | 116/3 |
| 24 | 9 | 125/3 |
| 25 | 7 | 132/3 |
| 26 | 5 | 137/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 143/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 147/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 149/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 151/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 153/3 |
| 32 | 0 | 153/3 |
| 33 | 10 | 163/3 |
| 34 | 4 | 167/3 |
| 35 | 4 | 171/3 |
| 36 | 4 | 175/3 |
| 37 | 7 | 182/3 |
| 38 | 4 | 186/3 |
| 39 | 9 | 195/3 |
| 40 | 11 | 206/3 |
| 41 | 5 | 211/4 |
| 42 | 4 | 215/5 |
| 43 | 3 | 218/5 |
| 44 | 8 | 226/6 |
| 45 | 5 | 231/7 |
| 46 | 3 | 234/7 |
| 47 | 9 | 243/7 |
| 48 | 9 | 252/7 |
| 49 | 12 | 264/7 |
| 50 | 7 | 271/8 |
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Oliver Peake: DustyNail · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Brendan Taylor: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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