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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
8 Feb 2026 · T20
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 65%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 49%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Paul Stirling · George Dockrell 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Paul Stirling · b George Dockrell | 24 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 104.35 |
| Kamil Misharacaught · Barry McCarthy · Mark Adair 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Barry McCarthy · b Mark Adair | 14 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 127.27 |
| Kusal Mendisnot out 5 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 56* | 43 | 5 | 0 | 130.23 |
| Pavan Rathnayakebowled · George Dockrell 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b George Dockrell | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Dunith Wellalagecaught · George Dockrell · Gareth Delany 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · George Dockrell · b Gareth Delany | 10 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 76.92 |
| caught · George Dockrell · b Barry McCarthy |
| 44 |
| 19 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 231.58 |
| Dasun Shanakacaught · Mark Adair · Barry McCarthy 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mark Adair · b Barry McCarthy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Wanindu Hasaranganot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Humphreys0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Adair0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Barry McCarthy0 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 40 | 2 | 13.33 | 5 | 1 |
 George Dockrell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 4.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Gareth Delany0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Harry Tector0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-28 (Kamil Mishara, 4.0) · 2-62 (Pathum Nissanka, 8.2) · 3-68 (Pavan Rathnayake, 10.1) · 4-86 (Dunith Wellalage, 13.5) · 5-153 (Kamindu Mendis, 18.4) · 6-153 (Dasun Shanaka, 18.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 27/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 28/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 38/1 |
| 6 | 12 | 50/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 54/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 61/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 63/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 68/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 71/3 |
| 12 | 5 | 76/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 84/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 87/4 |
| 15 | 8 | 95/4 |
| 16 | 9 | 104/4 |
| 17 | 21 | 125/4 |
| 18 | 10 | 135/4 |
| 19 | 19 | 154/6 |
| 20 | 9 | 163/6 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
