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Germany Women's T20I Tri-Series · 2024 · Women
27 Jul 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Germany more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Germany started on 70%; Germany batted first.
Germany's chances ranged from 1% to 84% during the match (Jersey: 17% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Hornero-Garciarun out · R Bowley, Mia Maguire · Chloe Greechan 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · R Bowley, Mia Maguire | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Christina Goughbowled · Florence Tanguy 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Florence Tanguy | 19 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 67.86 |
| Anne Bierwischstumped · Mia Maguire · Florence Tanguy 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Mia Maguire · b Florence Tanguy | 17 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 58.62 |
| Janet Ronaldscaught · Erin Gouge · Georgia Mallet 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Erin Gouge · b Georgia Mallet | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Anuradha Doddaballapurcaught · Charlie Miles · Georgia Mallet 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Charlie Miles · b Georgia Mallet | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Sharanya Sadaranganicaught · Mia Maguire · Georgia Mallet 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mia Maguire · b Georgia Mallet | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Karthika Vijayaraghavancaught · Mia Maguire · Georgia Mallet 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mia Maguire · b Georgia Mallet | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Stephanie Frohnmayerlbw · Analise Merritt 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Analise Merritt | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 72.73 |
|---|
| A Kohlinot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 8 | 1 | 0 | 137.50 |
|---|
| MS Beresfordrun out · Charlie Miles, Mia Maguire · Analise Merritt 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Charlie Miles, Mia Maguire | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Rameesha Shahidnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 14 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chloe Greechan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 3.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Analise Merritt0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 4.75 | 6 | 0 |
| Florence Tanguy0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 4 | 0 |
| Grace Wetherall0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Georgia Mallet0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 2.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Erin Gouge0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (W Hornero-Garcia, 0.5) · 2-43 (Anne Bierwisch, 10.1) · 3-46 (Christina Gough, 10.2) · 4-51 (Janet Ronalds, 11.3) · 5-55 (Sharanya Sadarangani, 13.2) · 6-61 (Anuradha Doddaballapur, 15.4) · 7-70 (Karthika Vijayaraghavan, 17.5) · 8-81 (Stephanie Frohnmayer, 19.3) · 9-82 (MS Beresford, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 5 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 18/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 22/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 26/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 33/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 37/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 43/1 |
| 11 | 7 | 50/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 51/4 |
| 13 | 3 | 54/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 57/5 |
| 15 | 3 | 60/5 |
| 16 | 1 | 61/6 |
| 17 | 7 | 68/6 |
| 18 | 4 | 72/7 |
| 19 | 7 | 79/7 |
| 20 | 8 | 87/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.