Royal Challengers BengaluruversusChennai Super Kings

18 May 2024 · T20

M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 27 runs

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs218/5 Chennai Super Kings20.0 overs191/7 M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 47%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Chennai Super Kings is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Chennai Super Kings: 0% to 56%).

Biggest swings

9.4: MJ Santner to V Kohli, V Kohli out. Chennai Super Kings up from 36% to 43%.
2nd inns 0.1: GJ Maxwell to RD Gaikwad, RD Gaikwad out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 78% to 87%.
2nd inns 9.1: LH Ferguson to AM Rahane, AM Rahane out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 81% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru218/5 Chennai Super Kings191/7

Innings 1