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England Women tour of South Africa · 2024/25 · Women
4 Dec 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 62%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 0% to 65% during the match (South Africa: 35% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sophia Dunkleycaught · Sinalo Jafta · Marizanne Kapp1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sinalo Jafta · b Marizanne Kapp | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
 Tammy Beaumontbowled · Marizanne Kapp1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marizanne Kapp | 11 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 64.71 |
 Heather Knightlbw · Nonkululeko Mlaba5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 40 | 63 | 5 | 0 | 63.49 |
 Nat Sciver-Bruntlbw · Marizanne Kapp0 fours · 0 sixes |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Marizanne Kapp |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
 Danielle Wyattlbw · Nadine de Klerk2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nadine de Klerk | 11 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 110.00 |
|---|
 Amy Jonescaught · Chloe Tryon · Annerie Dercksen4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chloe Tryon · b Annerie Dercksen | 21 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 80.77 |
|---|
 Alice Capseylbw · Nonkululeko Mlaba1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 8 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 53.33 |
|---|
 Charlie Deannot out6 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 47* | 57 | 6 | 0 | 82.46 |
|---|
 Sophie Ecclestonecaught · Nadine de Klerk · Annerie Dercksen2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nadine de Klerk · b Annerie Dercksen | 17 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 62.96 |
|---|
 Lauren Filerbowled · Annerie Dercksen0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Annerie Dercksen | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
 Lauren Bellrun out · Suné Luus, Ayanda Hlubi · Suné Luus0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Suné Luus, Ayanda Hlubi | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 22 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marizanne Kapp0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 24 | 3 | 4.80 | 0 | 1 |
 Ayabonga Khaka1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Ayanda Hlubi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 5.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Nadine de Klerk2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 2 | 32 | 1 | 4.57 | 1 | 0 |
 Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 14 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 47 | 2 | 5.88 | 14 | 0 |
| Annerie Dercksen0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 3.20 | 2 | 0 |
 Chloe Tryon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Suné Luus0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3.60 | 3 | 0 |
1-6 (Sophia Dunkley, 1.0) · 2-29 (Tammy Beaumont, 6.1) · 3-29 (Nat Sciver-Brunt, 6.4) · 4-50 (Danielle Wyatt, 10.1) · 5-77 (Amy Jones, 16.3) · 6-91 (Alice Capsey, 21.1) · 7-106 (Heather Knight, 25.1) · 8-173 (Sophie Ecclestone, 35.5) · 9-185 (Lauren Filer, 37.5) · 10-186 (Lauren Bell, 38.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 12/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 14/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 20/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 29/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 30/3 |
| 8 | 1 | 31/3 |
| 9 | 8 | 39/3 |
| 10 | 11 | 50/3 |
| 11 | 0 | 50/4 |
| 12 | 3 | 53/4 |
| 13 | 0 | 53/4 |
| 14 | 8 | 61/4 |
| 15 | 7 | 68/4 |
| 16 | 9 | 77/4 |
| 17 | 1 | 78/5 |
| 18 | 1 | 79/5 |
| 19 | 1 | 80/5 |
| 20 | 4 | 84/5 |
| 21 | 7 | 91/5 |
| 22 | 2 | 93/6 |
| 23 | 3 | 96/6 |
| 24 | 3 | 99/6 |
| 25 | 7 | 106/6 |
| 26 | 8 | 114/7 |
| 27 | 5 | 119/7 |
| 28 | 3 | 122/7 |
| 29 | 10 | 132/7 |
| 30 | 6 | 138/7 |
| 31 | 6 | 144/7 |
| 32 | 4 | 148/7 |
| 33 | 2 | 150/7 |
| 34 | 12 | 162/7 |
| 35 | 10 | 172/7 |
| 36 | 2 | 174/8 |
| 37 | 5 | 179/8 |
| 38 | 6 | 185/9 |
| 39 | 1 | 186/10 |
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marizanne Kapp: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophia Dunkley: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Wyatt: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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