Royal Challengers BangaloreversusUP Warriorz

24 Feb 2024 · T20

M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bangalore won by 2 runs

Royal Challengers Bangalore20.0 overs157/6 UP Warriorz20.0 overs155/7 M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bangalore started on 46%; Royal Challengers Bangalore batted first.

Royal Challengers Bangalore’s chance of winning (%) · UP Warriorz is the rest

Royal Challengers Bangalore's chances ranged from 14% to 90% during the match (UP Warriorz: 10% to 86%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.6: S Asha to KP Navgire, KP Navgire out. Royal Challengers Bangalore up from 46% to 65%.
2nd inns 18.4: G Wareham to PN Khemnar, PN Khemnar out. Royal Challengers Bangalore up from 19% to 39%.
2nd inns 19.6: S Molineux to DB Sharma, 2 runs to DB Sharma. Royal Challengers Bangalore up from 75% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bangalore157/6 UP Warriorz155/7

Innings 1