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Photo: Ruth Sharville
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2025 · Men
6 Jun 2025 · T20
St Lawrence Ground, Canterbury · Venue photographRecorded result
Surrey started on 55%; Surrey batted first.
Surrey's chances ranged from 48% to 100% during the match (Kent: 0% to 53%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Joe Denly · b Matt Parkinson | 53 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 160.61 |
3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Matt Parkinson · b Grant Stewart | 36 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 124.14 |
0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Rogers · b Matt Parkinson | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| caught · Joe Denly · b Grant Stewart |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Laurie Evansnot out 3 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 62* | 26 | 3 | 4 | 238.46 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnercaught · Tom Rogers · Wes Agar 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tom Rogers · b Wes Agar | 13 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 144.44 |
|---|
| Ollie Sykesrun out · Jack Leaning · Tom Rogers 1 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Jack Leaning | 15 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 187.50 |
|---|
0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Rogers · b Grant Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Klaassen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 8.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Tom Rogers0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 58 | 0 | 14.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Wes Agar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 9.25 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 6.33 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 3 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-83 (Ollie Pope, 9.1) · 2-94 (Jason Roy, 11.4) · 3-96 (Dominic Sibley, 12.1) · 4-101 (Sam Curran, 12.5) · 5-126 (Mitchell Santner, 15.3) · 6-180 (Ollie Sykes, 18.5) · 7-183 (Chris Jordan, 19.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 29/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 38/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 45/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 54/0 |
| 7 | 13 | 67/0 |
| 8 | 10 | 77/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 83/0 |
| 10 | 4 | 87/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 91/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 96/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 101/4 |
| 14 | 11 | 112/4 |
| 15 | 8 | 120/4 |
| 16 | 8 | 128/5 |
| 17 | 29 | 157/5 |
| 18 | 11 | 168/5 |
| 19 | 14 | 182/6 |
| 20 | 11 | 193/7 |
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chris Jordan: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Jason Roy: Joeyjackets · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jack Leaning: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Matt Parkinson: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Grant Stewart: Blue Square Thing · CC0
Daniel Bell-Drummond: Blue Square Thing · CC0
Dominic Sibley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jordan Clark: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Billings: M.o.B 68 · CC BY-SA 2.0
Joe Denly: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.