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Portugal T20 Tri-Series · 2026 · Men
7 Apr 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Norway more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
France started on 25%; France batted first.
France's chances ranged from 9% to 96% during the match (Norway: 4% to 91%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mukhtar Ghulamicaught · D Abeyrathna · Chaudhary Akram 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · D Abeyrathna · b Chaudhary Akram | 14 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 93.33 |
| L Canessanecaught · Ibrahim Rahimi · Qamar Mushtaque 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ibrahim Rahimi · b Qamar Mushtaque | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Virk Alicaught · Faisal Raza · Chaudhary Akram 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Faisal Raza · b Chaudhary Akram | 53 | 51 | 5 | 1 | 103.92 |
| C Robertsbowled · M Shahbaz Butt 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b M Shahbaz Butt | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 87.50 |
| Zada Shercaught · Sher Sahak · Syed Jawad Haider 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sher Sahak · b Syed Jawad Haider | 27 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 168.75 |
| caught · Chaudhary Akram · b Vinay Ravi |
| 19 |
| 15 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 126.67 |
| Noman Amjadcaught · Khizer Ahmed · Vinay Ravi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Khizer Ahmed · b Vinay Ravi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Zaheer Zahiricaught · Syed Jawad Haider · Vinay Ravi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Syed Jawad Haider · b Vinay Ravi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Jamshid Nasiribowled · Qamar Mushtaque 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Qamar Mushtaque | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Usman Khanbowled · Qamar Mushtaque 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Qamar Mushtaque | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Dawood Ahmadzainot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 3 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinay Ravi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 4.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Qamar Mushtaque0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Chaudhary Akram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| M Shahbaz Butt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 1 | 0 |
| D Abeyrathna0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Syed Jawad Haider0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 9.33 | 4 | 0 |
1-10 (L Canessane, 1.3) · 2-31 (Mukhtar Ghulami, 5.3) · 3-48 (C Roberts, 9.0) · 4-95 (Zada Sher, 13.2) · 5-126 (Mohammad Khan Rafah, 16.4) · 6-126 (Noman Amjad, 16.5) · 7-126 (Zaheer Zahiri, 17.0) · 8-127 (Jamshid Nasiri, 17.3) · 9-127 (Usman Khan, 17.4) · 10-133 (Virk Ali, 19.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 17/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 25/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 29/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 32/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 37/2 |
| 8 | 7 | 44/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 48/3 |
| 10 | 12 | 60/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 66/3 |
| 12 | 13 | 79/3 |
| 13 | 9 | 88/3 |
| 14 | 9 | 97/4 |
| 15 | 16 | 113/4 |
| 16 | 8 | 121/4 |
| 17 | 5 | 126/7 |
| 18 | 2 | 128/9 |
| 19 | 5 | 133/10 |
Khizer Ahmed: Khizer22 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
