Royal Challengers BengaluruversusChennai Super Kings

22 Mar 2024 · T20

MA Chidambaram Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Chennai Super Kings won by 6 wickets

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs173/6 Chennai Super Kings18.4 overs176/4 MA Chidambaram Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 43%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Chennai Super Kings is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (Chennai Super Kings: 38% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.6: Yash Dayal to RD Gaikwad, RD Gaikwad out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 34% to 46%.
2nd inns 12.3: C Green to DJ Mitchell, DJ Mitchell out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 26% to 40%.
2nd inns 13.2: GJ Maxwell to RA Jadeja, six by RA Jadeja. Chennai Super Kings up from 59% to 70%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru173/6 Chennai Super Kings176/4

Innings 1