BangladeshversusSouth Africa

12 Oct 2024 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 7 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs106/3 South Africa17.2 overs107/3 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

22%Bangladesh78%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,571 vs 1,447 on our results rating)
In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 7 and Bangladesh won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 21%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 22% during the match (South Africa: 78% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.2: M Kapp to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. South Africa up from 79% to 85%.
19.6: A Khaka to Nigar Sultana, 2 runs to Nigar Sultana. South Africa up from 80% to 86%.
2nd inns 2.6: Fahima Khatun to L Wolvaardt, L Wolvaardt out. Bangladesh up from 7% to 11%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh106/3 South Africa107/3

Innings 1

Bangladesh

106/320.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilara Aktercaught · Sinalo Jafta · Marizanne Kapp 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sinalo Jafta · b Marizanne Kapp	0	2	0	0	0.00
Shathi Ranicaught · Anne Bosch · Annerie Dercksen 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Anne Bosch · b Annerie Dercksen	19	30	1	1	63.33
Sobhana Mostarybowled · Nonkululeko Mlaba 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Nonkululeko Mlaba	38	43	4	0	88.37
Nigar Sultananot out 2 fours · 0 sixes	not out	32*	38	2	0	84.21
Shorna Akternot out 0 fours · 0 sixes	not out	4*	7	0

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Marizanne Kapp0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	10	1	2.50	1
Ayabonga Khaka1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	24	0	6.00	2
Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	29	0	9.67	2
Annerie Dercksen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	7	1	7.00	0
Chloe Tryon0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	19	0	6.33	4
Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	11	1	2.75	2
Suné Luus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	4	0	4.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	3	4/1
3	3	7/1
4	1	8/1
5	2	10/1
6	11	21/1
7	8	29/1
8	7	36/2
9	5	41/2
10	2	43/2
11	6	49/2
12	1	50/2
13	9	59/2
14	4	63/2
15	4	67/2
16	6	73/2
17	8	81/2
18	2	83/3
19	13	96/3
20	10	106/3

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