BangladeshversusIndia

6 Oct 2024 · T20

Recorded result

India won by 7 wickets

Bangladesh19.5 overs127/10 India11.5 overs132/3 Shrimant Madhavrao Scindia Cricket Stadium, Gwalior ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

10%Bangladesh90%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,806 vs 1,577 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 9 and Bangladesh won 1
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 9%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 10% during the match (India: 90% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.5: Arshdeep Singh to Liton Das, Liton Das out. India up from 90% to 94%.
2.1: Arshdeep Singh to Parvez Hossain Emon, Parvez Hossain Emon out. India up from 92% to 95%.
6.4: CV Varun to Towhid Hridoy, Towhid Hridoy out. India up from 94% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh127/10 India132/3

Innings 1

Bangladesh

127/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Parvez Hossain Emonbowled · Arshdeep Singh 0 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Arshdeep Singh	8	9	0	1	88.89
Litton Dascaught · Rinku Singh · Arshdeep Singh 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rinku Singh · b Arshdeep Singh	4	2	1	0	200.00
Najmul Hossain Shantocaught and bowled · Washington Sundar 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught and bowled · b Washington Sundar	27	25	1	1	108.00
Tawhid Hridoycaught · Hardik Pandya · Varun Chakravarthy 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Hardik Pandya · b Varun Chakravarthy

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	0	14	3	3.65	0
Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	1	6.50	1
Varun Chakravarthy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	31	3	7.75	0
Mayank Yadav1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	21	1	5.25	0
Nitish Kumar Reddy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	17	0	8.50	1
Washington Sundar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	1	6.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/1
2	8	14/1
3	2	16/2
4	8	24/2
5	15	39/2
6	0	39/2
7	3	42/3
8	3	45/4
9	11	56/4
10	8	64/5
11	6	70/5
12	5	75/6
13	15	90/6
14	5	95/7
15	7	102/7
16	9	111/7
17	3	114/7
18	3	117/9
19	3	120/9
20	7	127/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.