CanadaversusOman

30 Sept 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Oman won by 8 wickets

Canada19.5 overs106/10 Oman15.0 overs107/2 Maple Leaf North-West Ground, King City ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

53%Canada47%Oman

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Oman rate stronger than Canada (1,507 vs 1,468 on our results rating)
Canada are playing at home in Canada
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Canada won 3 and Oman won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Canada started on 50%; Canada batted first.

Canada’s chance of winning (%) · Oman is the rest

Canada's chances ranged from 0% to 50% during the match (Oman: 50% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.1: Shakeel Ahmed to NS Dhaliwal, NS Dhaliwal out. Oman up from 50% to 64%.
0.4: Shakeel Ahmed to DS Bajwa, DS Bajwa out. Oman up from 64% to 73%.
6.3: Fayyaz Butt to NR Kirton, NR Kirton out. Oman up from 73% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Canada106/10 Oman107/2

Innings 1

Canada

106/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Canada batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
Navneet Dhaliwalcaught · Fiaz Bhutt · Shakeel Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Fiaz Bhutt · b Shakeel Ahmed	0	1	0	0.00
Aaron Johnsoncaught · Kashyap Prajapati · Rafiullah 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kashyap Prajapati · b Rafiullah	2	9	0	22.22
Dilpreet Bajwarun out · Shoaib Khan, PS Athavale · Shakeel Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Shoaib Khan, PS Athavale	0	3	0	0.00
Nicholas Kirtoncaught · Kashyap Prajapati · Fiaz Bhutt 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kashyap Prajapati · b Fiaz Bhutt	18	21	3	85.71
Shreyas Movvacaught · Ayan Khan · Aaqib Ilyas 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ayan Khan · b Aaqib Ilyas	14	20	1	70.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Shakeel Ahmed1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	16	1	5.33	0	0
Kaleemullah0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.5	0	17	2	4.43	0	1
Fiaz Bhutt0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	2	5.25	2	0
Rafiullah0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	11	1	11.00	8	0
Aaqib Ilyas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	2	5.00	0	0
Zeeshan Maqsood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	1	3.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/2
2	4	4/2
3	9	13/2
4	5	18/2
5	2	20/2
6	11	31/3
7	4	35/4
8	3	38/4
9	4	42/4
10	8	50/4
11	4	54/4
12	6	60/6
13	1	61/6
14	4	65/6
15	7	72/6
16	5	77/7
17	8	85/7
18	7	92/8
19	9	101/9
20	5	106/10

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