Sri LankaversusSouth Africa

3 Jun 2024 · T20

Recorded result

South Africa won by 6 wickets

Sri Lanka19.1 overs77/10 South Africa16.2 overs80/4 Nassau County International Cricket Stadium, New York ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

56%Sri Lanka44%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than South Africa (1,564 vs 1,470 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 7 and Sri Lanka won 3

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 55%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 57% during the match (South Africa: 43% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.1: OEG Baartman to P Nissanka, P Nissanka out. South Africa up from 46% to 57%.
8.3: KA Maharaj to S Samarawickrama, S Samarawickrama out. South Africa up from 78% to 85%.
9.6: A Nortje to BKG Mendis, BKG Mendis out. South Africa up from 83% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka77/10 South Africa80/4

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

77/1019.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Pathum Nissankacaught · Heinrich Klaasen · Ottniel Baartman 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Heinrich Klaasen · b Ottniel Baartman	3	8	0	0	37.50
Kusal Mendiscaught · Tristan Stubbs · Anrich Nortje 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tristan Stubbs · b Anrich Nortje	19	30	1	0	63.33
Kamindu Mendiscaught · Reeza Hendricks · Anrich Nortje 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Reeza Hendricks · b Anrich Nortje	11	15	1	0	73.33
Wanindu Hasarangastumped · Quinton de Kock · Keshav Maharaj 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Quinton de Kock · b Keshav Maharaj	0	2	0	0	0.00
Sadeera Samarawickramabowled · Keshav Maharaj0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Marco Jansen0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.1	0	15	0	4.74	1
Kagiso Rabada1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	21	2	5.25	1
Ottniel Baartman1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	9	1	2.25	1
Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	2	5.50	0
Anrich Nortje0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	7	4	1.75	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	7	9/0
3	4	13/0
4	1	14/1
5	7	21/1
6	3	24/1
7	6	30/1
8	1	31/2
9	5	36/4
10	4	40/5
11	4	44/5
12	2	46/6
13	7	53/6
14	8	61/6
15	7	68/7
16	2	70/8
17	1	71/8
18	0	71/9
19	5	76/9
20	1	77/10

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