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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C · 2026/27 · Men
23 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Zambia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Lesotho started on 34%; Lesotho batted first.
Lesotho's chances ranged from 0% to 41% during the match (Zambia: 59% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LM Gabriellbw · Ismail Kara 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ismail Kara | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ajaz Patelcaught · M Yambayamba · Zahirbhai Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Yambayamba · b Zahirbhai Patel | 7 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 30.43 |
| M Devush Patelcaught · Javid Patel · Zahirbhai Patel 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Javid Patel · b Zahirbhai Patel | 38 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 118.75 |
| Chachole Tlalicaught · M Yambayamba · Javid Patel 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Yambayamba · b Javid Patel | 8 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 57.14 |
| Maaz Khanbowled · Javid Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Javid Patel | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| bowled · b Javid Patel |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Lefulere Monanthanebowled · Zahirbhai Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zahirbhai Patel | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Inshaf Farookrun out · R Lungu, M Yambayamba · Zahirbhai Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · R Lungu, M Yambayamba | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Tanki Alber Khetsilbw · Zahirbhai Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Zahirbhai Patel | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Ts'episo Chaoananot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| M Khautabowled · Javid Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Javid Patel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismail Kara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshep Zulu0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 11.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Javid Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ayaz Dadabhai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Zahirbhai Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
| R Lungu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (LM Gabriel, 0.1) · 2-46 (M Devush Patel, 8.2) · 3-55 (Ajaz Patel, 10.4) · 4-56 (Maaz Khan, 11.3) · 5-56 (Gladwin Thamae, 11.4) · 6-57 (Lefulere Monanthane, 12.2) · 7-58 (Inshaf Farook, 12.3) · 8-58 (Tanki Alber Khetsi, 12.5) · 9-58 (Chachole Tlali, 13.3) · 10-58 (M Khauta, 13.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 17 | 30/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 32/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 34/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 41/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 46/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 47/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 53/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 55/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 57/5 |
| 13 | 1 | 58/8 |
| 14 | 0 | 58/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.