Melbourne RenegadesversusMelbourne Stars

15 Nov 2024 · T20

Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Renegades won by 9 runs

Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs170/6 Melbourne Stars20.0 overs161/8 Melbourne Cricket Ground ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Renegades started on 43%; Melbourne Renegades batted first.

Melbourne Renegades’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Stars is the rest

Melbourne Renegades's chances ranged from 14% to 99% during the match (Melbourne Stars: 2% to 86%).

Biggest swings

0.2: M Kapp to E Hayward, E Hayward out. Melbourne Stars up from 56% to 68%.
2nd inns 16.2: DJS Dottin to R McKenna, six by R McKenna. Melbourne Stars up from 23% to 39%.
2nd inns 18.3: SJ Coyte to T Flintoff, T Flintoff out. Melbourne Renegades up from 62% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Melbourne Renegades170/6 Melbourne Stars161/8

Innings 1