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Netherlands Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2024 · Women
12 Aug 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 42%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saskia Horleylbw · Caroline de Lange 5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Caroline de Lange | 43 | 70 | 5 | 0 | 61.43 |
| Abbi Aitkenrun out · CH van Koolwijk · Hannah Landheer 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · CH van Koolwijk | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Darcey Cartercaught · Babette de Leede · Eva Lynch 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Babette de Leede · b Eva Lynch | 12 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Chloe Abelbowled · Silver Siegers 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Silver Siegers | 9 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 27.27 |
| Priyanaz Chatterjilbw · Eva Lynch 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Eva Lynch | 33 | 60 | 3 | 0 | 55.00 |
Scotland's chances ranged from 32% to 98% during the match (Netherlands: 2% to 69%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Annemijn van Beuge · b Silver Siegers |
| 23 |
| 19 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 121.05 |
| Katherine Frasercaught · Hannah Landheer · Iris Zwilling 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hannah Landheer · b Iris Zwilling | 39 | 65 | 4 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Ellen Watsonlbw · Annemijn van Beuge 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Annemijn van Beuge | 9 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 56.25 |
|---|
| Abtaha Maqsoodbowled · Annemijn van Beuge 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Annemijn van Beuge | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Olivia Bellnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| G Fontenlabowled · Annemijn van Beuge 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Annemijn van Beuge | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 8 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iris Zwilling0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 3.60 | 1 | 0 |
| Hannah Landheer0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 5.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Caroline de Lange0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 2.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Eva Lynch0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 3.30 | 0 | 1 |
| Annemijn van Beuge0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.5 | 0 | 29 | 3 | 3.28 | 0 | 0 |
| Silver Siegers0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 5.86 | 0 | 1 |
1-4 (Abbi Aitken, 1.4) · 2-42 (Darcey Carter, 10.1) · 3-68 (Saskia Horley, 20.0) · 4-73 (Chloe Abel, 21.3) · 5-107 (Lorna Jack, 27.4) · 6-158 (Priyanaz Chatterji, 42.3) · 7-178 (Katherine Fraser, 46.3) · 8-181 (Abtaha Maqsood, 47.4) · 9-185 (Ellen Watson, 49.1) · 10-187 (G Fontenla, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 4/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 9/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 13/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 18/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 22/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 27/1 |
| 8 | 9 | 36/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 41/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 42/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 44/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 45/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 47/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 51/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 56/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 58/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 59/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 62/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 66/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 68/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 71/3 |
| 22 | 7 | 78/4 |
| 23 | 2 | 80/4 |
| 24 | 4 | 84/4 |
| 25 | 6 | 90/4 |
| 26 | 10 | 100/4 |
| 27 | 6 | 106/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 108/5 |
| 29 | 1 | 109/5 |
| 30 | 7 | 116/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 118/5 |
| 32 | 2 | 120/5 |
| 33 | 2 | 122/5 |
| 34 | 2 | 124/5 |
| 35 | 6 | 130/5 |
| 36 | 2 | 132/5 |
| 37 | 1 | 133/5 |
| 38 | 6 | 139/5 |
| 39 | 2 | 141/5 |
| 40 | 7 | 148/5 |
| 41 | 1 | 149/5 |
| 42 | 7 | 156/5 |
| 43 | 5 | 161/6 |
| 44 | 5 | 166/6 |
| 45 | 7 | 173/6 |
| 46 | 4 | 177/6 |
| 47 | 3 | 180/7 |
| 48 | 2 | 182/8 |
| 49 | 3 | 185/8 |
| 50 | 2 | 187/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.