EnglandversusPakistan

19 May 2024 · T20

Headingley · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 34 runs

England20.0 overs176/10 Pakistan20.0 overs142/4 Headingley ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

94%England6%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than Pakistan (1,729 vs 1,436 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 10 and Pakistan won 0
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 94%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

England's chances ranged from 92% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 8%).

Biggest swings

8.5: Nida Dar to NR Sciver-Brunt, NR Sciver-Brunt out. Pakistan up from 5% to 7%.
2nd inns 8.6: S Ecclestone to Sidra Ameen, Sidra Ameen out. England up from 93% to 96%.
2nd inns 9.3: CE Dean to Gull Feroza, Gull Feroza out. England up from 95% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England176/10 Pakistan142/4

Innings 1

England

176/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Maia Bouchierrun out · Muneeba Ali, Diana Baig · Sadia Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Muneeba Ali, Diana Baig	8	14	0	0	57.14
Danielle Wyattcaught · Sadaf Shamas · Diana Baig 12 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Sadaf Shamas · b Diana Baig	87	48	12	1	181.25
Nat Sciver-Bruntcaught · Sidra Ameen · Nida Dar 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sidra Ameen · b Nida Dar	8	10	1	0	80.00
Heather Knightcaught · Diana Baig · Nida Dar 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Diana Baig · b Nida Dar

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Diana Baig0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	3	6.50	0	0
Waheeda Akhtar0 maidens · 3 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	39	0	9.75	3	2
Sadia Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	0	8.25	0	0
Fatima Sana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	0	0
Nida Dar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	45	3	11.25	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	12	16/0
3	9	25/0
4	6	31/0
5	5	36/0
6	4	40/1
7	6	46/1
8	6	52/1
9	8	60/2
10	9	69/2
11	20	89/2
12	12	101/2
13	10	111/2
14	9	120/3
15	9	129/5
16	12	141/5
17	8	149/6
18	11	160/6
19	8	168/7
20	8	176/10

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