Central DistrictsversusOtago

30 Dec 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Otago won by 7 wickets

Central Districts20.0 overs116/8 Otago14.2 overs117/3 Molyneux Park, Alexandra ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 36%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Otago is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 0% to 36% during the match (Otago: 64% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: EJ Black to BF Smith, BF Smith out. Otago up from 65% to 74%.
3.2: LM Kotkamp to EMA McLeod, EMA McLeod out. Otago up from 67% to 75%.
8.4: AS Browning to G Scrivens, G Scrivens out. Otago up from 84% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts116/8 Otago117/3

Innings 1