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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
18 Jul 2024 · ODI
Forthill, Dundee · Venue photographNamibia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Oman started on 32%; Oman batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS Athavalecaught · Michael van Lingen · Ben Shikongo 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael van Lingen · b Ben Shikongo | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Kashyap Prajapaticaught · Jean-Pierre Kotze · MG Kariata 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jean-Pierre Kotze · b MG Kariata | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Aaqib Ilyaslbw · Bernard Scholtz 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Bernard Scholtz | 39 | 76 | 3 | 0 | 51.32 |
| Zeeshan Maqsoodcaught · Jan Frylinck · Ben Shikongo 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jan Frylinck · b Ben Shikongo | 51 | 99 | 4 | 0 | 51.52 |
| Khalid Kailcaught · Jan Frylinck · Ben Shikongo 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jan Frylinck · b Ben Shikongo | 51 | 66 | 6 | 0 | 77.27 |
Oman's chances ranged from 1% to 36% during the match (Namibia: 64% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Ayan Khanbowled · Jack Brassell 2 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| bowled · b Jack Brassell |
| 17 |
| 27 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 62.96 |
| Shoaib Khanbowled · Ben Shikongo 3 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Ben Shikongo | 30 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Kaleemullahrun out · JJ Smit, Ben Shikongo · Ben Shikongo 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · JJ Smit, Ben Shikongo | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Fiaz Bhuttnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 30 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Shikongo0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 29 | 4 | 3.22 | 2 | 0 |
| MG Kariata0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 6.20 | 1 | 0 |
| Jack Brassell0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 4.20 | 3 | 0 |
| Jan Frylinck0 maidens · 14 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 55 | 0 | 5.50 | 14 | 0 |
| Gerhard Erasmus0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 4.67 | 5 | 0 |
| Bernard Scholtz1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 4.20 | 5 | 0 |
1-3 (Kashyap Prajapati, 1.2) · 2-11 (PS Athavale, 2.2) · 3-101 (Aaqib Ilyas, 24.4) · 4-160 (Zeeshan Maqsood, 37.1) · 5-196 (Ayan Khan, 45.5) · 6-214 (Khalid Kail, 47.5) · 7-229 (Kaleemullah, 49.4) · 8-233 (Shoaib Khan, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 12/2 |
| 4 | 5 | 17/2 |
| 5 | 1 | 18/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 22/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 24/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 27/2 |
| 9 | 1 | 28/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 29/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 35/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 38/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 42/2 |
| 14 | 1 | 43/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 46/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 50/2 |
| 17 | 9 | 59/2 |
| 18 | 12 | 71/2 |
| 19 | 2 | 73/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 75/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 78/2 |
| 22 | 8 | 86/2 |
| 23 | 1 | 87/2 |
| 24 | 14 | 101/2 |
| 25 | 0 | 101/3 |
| 26 | 1 | 102/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 104/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 107/3 |
| 29 | 6 | 113/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 119/3 |
| 31 | 7 | 126/3 |
| 32 | 6 | 132/3 |
| 33 | 2 | 134/3 |
| 34 | 12 | 146/3 |
| 35 | 5 | 151/3 |
| 36 | 7 | 158/3 |
| 37 | 2 | 160/3 |
| 38 | 1 | 161/4 |
| 39 | 2 | 163/4 |
| 40 | 5 | 168/4 |
| 41 | 3 | 171/4 |
| 42 | 4 | 175/4 |
| 43 | 6 | 181/4 |
| 44 | 7 | 188/4 |
| 45 | 6 | 194/4 |
| 46 | 2 | 196/5 |
| 47 | 12 | 208/5 |
| 48 | 8 | 216/6 |
| 49 | 7 | 223/6 |
| 50 | 10 | 233/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
