ThailandversusPapua New Guinea

Thailand more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Papua New Guinea (1,748 vs 1,521 on our results rating)
• Papua New Guinea are playing at home in Papua New Guinea

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Thailand started on 76%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand's chances ranged from 9% to 83% during the match (Papua New Guinea: 17% to 91%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 16.5: S Chaturongrattana to P Siaka, four by P Siaka. Papua New Guinea up from 60% to 77%.
2. 2nd inns 19.3: P Maya to P Siaka, four by P Siaka. Papua New Guinea up from 31% to 64%.
3. 2nd inns 19.6: P Maya to P Siaka, 2 runs to P Siaka. Papua New Guinea up from 64% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.