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Photo: Seksan Phonsuwan
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ICC Women's Emerging Nations Trophy · 2025/26 · Women
25 Nov 2025 · T20
Asian Institute of Technology Ground, Bangkok · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Uganda started on 44%; Uganda batted first.
Uganda's chances ranged from 0% to 55% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 45% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janet Mbabazistumped · Theertha Satish · MD Botha 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Theertha Satish · b MD Botha | 16 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 61.54 |
| E Ilokucaught · Rinitha Rajith · MD Botha 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rinitha Rajith · b MD Botha | 9 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 69.23 |
| Immaculate Nakisuuyibowled · Vaishnave Mahesh 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Vaishnave Mahesh | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Rita Musamalibowled · Vaishnave Mahesh 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Vaishnave Mahesh | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 77.78 |
| Stephanie Nampiinabowled · Vaishnave Mahesh 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Vaishnave Mahesh | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| not out |
| 13* |
| 30 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 43.33 |
| Prosscovia Alakocaught and bowled · Heena Hotchandani 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Heena Hotchandani | 12 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Malisa Ariokotlbw · Esha Oza 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Esha Oza | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Concy Awekobowled · Heena Hotchandani 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Heena Hotchandani | 9 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| K Amugenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Dharnidharka0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 2 | 0 |
| ATS Silva0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
| S Kotte0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| MD Botha1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Vaishnave Mahesh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 5.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Esha Oza1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Heena Hotchandani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 3.33 | 1 | 0 |
1-25 (E Iloku, 5.2) · 2-30 (Immaculate Nakisuuyi, 6.3) · 3-38 (Rita Musamali, 8.2) · 4-38 (Stephanie Nampiina, 9.0) · 5-38 (Janet Mbabazi, 9.2) · 6-56 (Prosscovia Alako, 14.4) · 7-57 (Malisa Ariokot, 15.3) · 8-75 (Concy Aweko, 19.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 19/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 23/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 25/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 27/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 31/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 34/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 38/4 |
| 10 | 1 | 39/5 |
| 11 | 6 | 45/5 |
| 12 | 0 | 45/5 |
| 13 | 8 | 53/5 |
| 14 | 1 | 54/5 |
| 15 | 2 | 56/6 |
| 16 | 2 | 58/7 |
| 17 | 4 | 62/7 |
| 18 | 8 | 70/7 |
| 19 | 5 | 75/8 |
| 20 | 0 | 75/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.