**College Ground, Cheltenham**
Photo: David Hawgood
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

GloucestershireversusGlamorgan

14 Jul 2024 · T20

College Ground, Cheltenham · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Gloucestershire won by 121 runs

Gloucestershire20.0 overs206/6 Glamorgan15.5 overs85/10 College Ground, Cheltenham ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 52%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Glamorgan is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 36% to 100% during the match (Glamorgan: 0% to 65%).

Biggest swings

0.4: T van der Gugten to Miles Hammond, Miles Hammond out. Glamorgan up from 50% to 64%.
5.3: JP McIlroy to CT Bancroft, four by CT Bancroft. Gloucestershire up from 57% to 66%.
6.4: AW Gorvin to James Bracey, James Bracey out. Glamorgan up from 31% to 39%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gloucestershire206/6 Glamorgan85/10

Innings 1