ZimbabweversusBangladesh

3 May 2024 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 8 wickets

Zimbabwe20.0 overs124/10 Bangladesh15.2 overs126/2 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

47%Zimbabwe53%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Zimbabwe rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,608 vs 1,538 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 7 and Zimbabwe won 3
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 45%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 51% during the match (Bangladesh: 49% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: Mahedi Hasan to CR Ervine, CR Ervine out. Bangladesh up from 51% to 63%.
5.1: Mahedi Hasan to BJ Bennett, BJ Bennett out. Bangladesh up from 63% to 73%.
5.2: Mahedi Hasan to Sikandar Raza, Sikandar Raza out. Bangladesh up from 73% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe124/10 Bangladesh126/2

Innings 1

Zimbabwe

124/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Joylord Gumbiecaught · Taskin Ahmed · Mohammad Saifuddin 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Taskin Ahmed · b Mohammad Saifuddin	17	14	4	0	121.43
Craig Ervinebowled · Mahedi Hasan 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Mahedi Hasan	0	2	0	0	0.00
Brian Bennettrun out · Mahmudullah, Jaker Ali · Mahedi Hasan 3 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Mahmudullah, Jaker Ali	16	15	3	0	106.67
Sean Williamsbowled · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Taskin Ahmed	0	1	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Shariful Islam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	37	0	9.25	0	0
Mahedi Hasan1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	16	2	4.00	0	0
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	3	3.50	0	0
Mohammad Saifuddin0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	15	3	3.75	2	1
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	37	0	9.25	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	5	13/1
3	13	26/1
4	5	31/1
5	5	36/2
6	2	38/4
7	1	39/6
8	3	42/7
9	1	43/7
10	6	49/7
11	7	56/7
12	8	64/7
13	0	64/7
14	7	71/7
15	9	80/7
16	2	82/7
17	11	93/7
18	16	109/7
19	9	118/8
20	6	124/10

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