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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
19 Aug 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 52%; United States of America batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Taylorcaught · Shreyas Movva · Saad Bin Zafar 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Saad Bin Zafar | 46 | 77 | 5 | 0 | 59.74 |
| Smit Patellbw · Saad Bin Zafar 11 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Saad Bin Zafar | 70 | 84 | 11 | 0 | 83.33 |
| Monank Patelbowled · Saad Bin Zafar 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Saad Bin Zafar | 26 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 74.29 |
| Aaron Jonescaught · Shreyas Movva · Dillon Heyliger 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Dillon Heyliger | 50 | 53 | 3 | 1 | 94.34 |
| Milind Kumarcaught · Shreyas Movva · Kaleem Sana 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Kaleem Sana | 47 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 156.67 |
United States of America's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Canada: 0% to 49%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Shayan Jahangircaught · Shreyas Movva · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Shreyas Movva · b Kaleem Sana |
| 10 |
| 14 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 71.43 |
| Harmeet Singhnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Shadley van Schalkwykrun out · Shreyas Movva · RR Joshi 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Shreyas Movva | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Jasdeep Singhrun out · Shreyas Movva, Dillon Heyliger · RR Joshi 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Shreyas Movva, Dillon Heyliger | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 6 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 39 | 2 | 3.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Dillon Heyliger0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 66 | 1 | 6.60 | 2 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 56 | 0 | 5.60 | 0 | 0 |
| RR Joshi0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 77 | 0 | 7.70 | 3 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar2 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 30 | 3 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
1-125 (Steven Taylor, 26.1) · 2-130 (Smit Patel, 28.2) · 3-189 (Monank Patel, 38.2) · 4-223 (Aaron Jones, 43.4) · 5-264 (Milind Kumar, 48.4) · 6-265 (Shayan Jahangir, 49.0) · 7-272 (Shadley van Schalkwyk, 49.4) · 8-275 (Jasdeep Singh, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 26/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 32/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 37/0 |
| 9 | 7 | 44/0 |
| 10 | 2 | 46/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 52/0 |
| 12 | 1 | 53/0 |
| 13 | 4 | 57/0 |
| 14 | 9 | 66/0 |
| 15 | 11 | 77/0 |
| 16 | 2 | 79/0 |
| 17 | 7 | 86/0 |
| 18 | 4 | 90/0 |
| 19 | 8 | 98/0 |
| 20 | 8 | 106/0 |
| 21 | 2 | 108/0 |
| 22 | 3 | 111/0 |
| 23 | 7 | 118/0 |
| 24 | 3 | 121/0 |
| 25 | 0 | 121/0 |
| 26 | 4 | 125/0 |
| 27 | 1 | 126/1 |
| 28 | 3 | 129/1 |
| 29 | 2 | 131/2 |
| 30 | 1 | 132/2 |
| 31 | 5 | 137/2 |
| 32 | 7 | 144/2 |
| 33 | 13 | 157/2 |
| 34 | 4 | 161/2 |
| 35 | 5 | 166/2 |
| 36 | 7 | 173/2 |
| 37 | 10 | 183/2 |
| 38 | 6 | 189/2 |
| 39 | 2 | 191/3 |
| 40 | 12 | 203/3 |
| 41 | 0 | 203/3 |
| 42 | 5 | 208/3 |
| 43 | 11 | 219/3 |
| 44 | 9 | 228/4 |
| 45 | 11 | 239/4 |
| 46 | 7 | 246/4 |
| 47 | 4 | 250/4 |
| 48 | 12 | 262/4 |
| 49 | 3 | 265/6 |
| 50 | 10 | 275/8 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
