EstoniaversusFinland

27 Jul 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Finland won by 5 wickets

Estonia19.4 overs141/10 Finland18.1 overs142/5 Estonian National Cricket and Rugby Field, Tallinn ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Estonia more likely to win

67%Estonia33%Finland

Why

In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Estonia won 2 and Finland won 0
Estonia are playing at home in Estonia
On results in T20 internationals so far, Estonia rate stronger than Finland (1,438 vs 1,416 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Estonia started on 64%; Estonia batted first.

Estonia’s chance of winning (%) · Finland is the rest

Estonia's chances ranged from 0% to 79% during the match (Finland: 21% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.3: Habib Khan to VS Padhaal, VS Padhaal out. Estonia up from 36% to 48%.
2nd inns 12.6: Arslan Amjad to PUKK Arachchige, PUKK Arachchige out. Estonia up from 17% to 25%.
2nd inns 13.6: Sahil Chauhan to Jordan O'Brien, four by Jordan O'Brien. Finland up from 75% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Estonia141/10 Finland142/5

Innings 1

Estonia

141/1019.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Estonia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Goochcaught · NM Salonen · MB Tambe 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · NM Salonen · b MB Tambe	22	27	3	0	81.48
Habib Khancaught · NM Salonen · Junaid Khan (2) 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · NM Salonen · b Junaid Khan (2)	23	20	2	1	115.00
Arslan Amjadcaught · Jordan O'Brien · Akhil Arjunan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jordan O'Brien · b Akhil Arjunan	8	12	0	0	66.67
Bilal Masudcaught · VS Padhaal · Madhawa Basnayaka 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · VS Padhaal · b Madhawa Basnayaka	26	24	2	0	108.33
Sahil Chauhanbowled · MB Tambe 1 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b MB Tambe	23	14	1	2	164.29

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Amjad Sher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	0	18	1	4.91	0	0
NM Salonen1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	14	0	4.67	0	0
Akhil Arjunan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	29	1	9.67	0	0
Junaid Khan (2)0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	2	4.75	2	0
Madhawa Basnayaka0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	31	1	7.75	2	1
MB Tambe0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	19	5	9.50	3	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	13	18/0
3	2	20/0
4	6	26/0
5	8	34/0
6	4	38/0
7	13	51/0
8	3	54/1
9	7	61/1
10	3	64/1
11	7	71/1
12	4	75/2
13	13	88/2
14	12	100/2
15	4	104/3
16	4	108/4
17	12	120/7
18	11	131/7
19	7	138/9
20	3	141/10

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