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Photo: Younisjunejo
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ICC Women's World Cup Qualifier · 2025 · Women
14 Apr 2025 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 48%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muneeba Alilbw · Afy Fletcher 4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Afy Fletcher | 33 | 60 | 4 | 0 | 55.00 |
| Gull Ferozacaught · Karishma Ramharack · Hayley Matthews 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Karishma Ramharack · b Hayley Matthews | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Sidra Ameenbowled · Ashmini Munisar 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ashmini Munisar | 54 | 94 | 4 | 0 | 57.45 |
| Aliya Riazrun out · Shemaine Campbelle, Karishma Ramharack · Afy Fletcher 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Shemaine Campbelle, Karishma Ramharack | 20 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 57.14 |
| Umaima Sohailcaught · Hayley Matthews · Afy Fletcher 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hayley Matthews · b Afy Fletcher | 16 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 59.26 |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 23% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 77%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Fatima Sanacaught · Shabika Gajnabi · Aaliyah Alleyne 1 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Shabika Gajnabi · b Aaliyah Alleyne |
| 15 |
| 24 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 62.50 |
| Sidra Nawazrun out · Hayley Matthews, Karishma Ramharack · Karishma Ramharack 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Hayley Matthews, Karishma Ramharack | 23 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 82.14 |
|---|
| Rameen Shamimbowled · Karishma Ramharack 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Karishma Ramharack | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Diana Baigcaught · Shabika Gajnabi · Hayley Matthews 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shabika Gajnabi · b Hayley Matthews | 9 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 128.57 |
|---|
| Nashra Sandhunot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 8 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
|---|
| Sadia Iqbalcaught · Shabika Gajnabi · Karishma Ramharack 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shabika Gajnabi · b Karishma Ramharack | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chinelle Henry1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Jannillea Glasgow1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 0 | 55 | 2 | 5.59 | 2 | 0 |
 Afy Fletcher1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 39 | 2 | 3.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Ashmini Munisar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 2.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Gull Feroza, 3.1) · 2-53 (Muneeba Ali, 16.5) · 3-97 (Aliya Riaz, 28.5) · 4-132 (Umaima Sohail, 36.4) · 5-139 (Sidra Ameen, 39.2) · 6-157 (Fatima Sana, 44.2) · 7-166 (Rameen Shamim, 45.5) · 8-180 (Diana Baig, 47.4) · 9-186 (Sidra Nawaz, 49.1) · 10-191 (Sadia Iqbal, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 7/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 8/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 10/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 15/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 17/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 22/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 27/1 |
| 11 | 0 | 27/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 31/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 35/1 |
| 14 | 7 | 42/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 48/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 53/1 |
| 17 | 0 | 53/2 |
| 18 | 6 | 59/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 63/2 |
| 20 | 8 | 71/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 73/2 |
| 22 | 1 | 74/2 |
| 23 | 8 | 82/2 |
| 24 | 3 | 85/2 |
| 25 | 2 | 87/2 |
| 26 | 3 | 90/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 92/2 |
| 28 | 1 | 93/2 |
| 29 | 4 | 97/3 |
| 30 | 1 | 98/3 |
| 31 | 6 | 104/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 107/3 |
| 33 | 6 | 113/3 |
| 34 | 2 | 115/3 |
| 35 | 4 | 119/3 |
| 36 | 6 | 125/3 |
| 37 | 8 | 133/4 |
| 38 | 3 | 136/4 |
| 39 | 3 | 139/4 |
| 40 | 1 | 140/5 |
| 41 | 2 | 142/5 |
| 42 | 1 | 143/5 |
| 43 | 4 | 147/5 |
| 44 | 8 | 155/5 |
| 45 | 4 | 159/6 |
| 46 | 8 | 167/7 |
| 47 | 10 | 177/7 |
| 48 | 3 | 180/8 |
| 49 | 6 | 186/8 |
| 50 | 5 | 191/10 |
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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