Sri LankaversusBangladesh

20 Sept 2025 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 4 wickets

Sri Lanka20.0 overs168/7 Bangladesh19.5 overs169/6 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

51%Sri Lanka49%Bangladesh

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 6 and Bangladesh won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,603 vs 1,585 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 48%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 1% to 72% during the match (Bangladesh: 28% to 99%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.5: N Thushara to Tanzid Hasan, Tanzid Hasan out. Sri Lanka up from 61% to 72%.
2nd inns 6.3: PWH de Silva to Liton Das, Liton Das out. Sri Lanka up from 37% to 50%.
2nd inns 12.3: DN Wellalage to Towhid Hridoy, six by Towhid Hridoy. Bangladesh up from 61% to 71%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka168/7 Bangladesh169/6

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

168/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Pathum Nissankacaught · Saif Hassan · Taskin Ahmed 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Saif Hassan · b Taskin Ahmed	22	15	3	1	146.67
Kusal Mendiscaught · Saif Hassan · Mahedi Hasan 1 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Saif Hassan · b Mahedi Hasan	34	25	1	3	136.00
Kamil Misharabowled · Mahedi Hasan 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Mahedi Hasan	5	11	0	0	45.45
Kushal Janith Pereracaught · Litton Das · Mustafizur Rahman 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Litton Das · b Mustafizur Rahman	16	16	1	0	100.00
Dasun Shanakanot out 3 fours · 6 sixes	not out	64*	37	3	6	172.97

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shariful Islam0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	49	0	12.25	1
Nasum Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	0	9.00	0
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	0
Mahedi Hasan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	1
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	3	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	5	13/0
3	15	28/0
4	8	36/0
5	8	44/1
6	9	53/1
7	3	56/1
8	4	60/2
9	5	65/2
10	7	72/3
11	6	78/3
12	5	83/3
13	9	92/3
14	6	98/4
15	17	115/4
16	14	129/4
17	6	135/4
18	18	153/4
19	5	158/7
20	10	168/7

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